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CHART UPDATED TO JULY 4 2016 ( CLOSE  )

EVERY YEAR FROM NOVEMBER TO FEB I USUALLY SEE AN INVERSION TAKE PLACE

NEXT TURN DATE IS JULY 8-21TH 20156    ( A TURN IS DUE ) 

Note: 2 YR CYCLE SHOWING A PEAK  AUGUST 4TH. ( 2 YR CYCLE IN BLUE )

THERE IS A CONFLICT WITH THE SHORT TERM CYCLES AND THE 2 YEAR CYCLE 

WHICH BEGINS JULY 8-9TH. 

JULY 21 TO AUGUST 4TH SHOULD BE UP .

 

 

 

 

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June 28 2016

THE NEXT HIGH IS TECHNICALLY DUE AUGUST 1-3 2016

THIS IS THE LARGER PICTURE IM WORKING WITH AT THE MOMENT.

THE WEEKLY HIGH SHOULD BE THE WEEK OF JULY 25TH YET 

AUGUST 1ST-3RD IS GOING TO BE A KEY DAY AND THE FIRST WEEK OF 

AUGUST IS GOING TO BE THE KEY WEEK .

ITS A BIT PREMATURE TO FORECAST THE DOWNSIDE MOVEMENT WITHOUT 

FIRST SEEING WHERE THE HIGH ACTUALLY COMES IN AT YET THIS IS 

WHAT I THINK IS GOING TO TRACE OUT .

DATES ARE NOTED ON THE CHART . 

( THESE DATES WONT CHANGE AS THEY ARE THE MAJOR DATES )

BOTTOM LINE: ONCE WE ENTER THE MONTH OF AUGUST THERE WILL BE

MANY BEARISH CYCLES KICKING IN .

 

March 23 2016

I HAVE TO BE BEARISH AT THIS JUNCTURE EVEN IF MY TIMING MODEL IS POINTING HIGHER .

THE WAVE COUNT COUNTS AS 5 WAVES UP AND WHILE THIS WAS A VERY WEAK 5 WAVES

IT APPEARS TO LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO THE AUGUST NOV RALLY LAST YEAR .

IF THIS WAVE COUNT PROVES TO BE CORRECT THIS WILL BECOME A DEEP WAVE 2 

RETRACEMENT AND THE JAN-FEB LOWS WILL HOLD .

THIS IS A DAILY SPX CHART .

AT THE VERY LEAST CAUTION IS WARRANTED AT THIS JUNCTURE .

GOOD LUCK TRADING 

MARCH 20 2016

BE VERY CAREFUL NEXT WEEK 

JUST NOTES ILL GO INTO MONDAY .

MARCH 4 2016 

JUST NOTES

ADVANCE DECLINE LINE TO DOW 

" TOPPING ACTION"

5 DAY ROLLING OVER ON AN UP DAY ( BEARISH DIVERGENCE VERY SHORT TERM )

10 DAY NOT YET ROLLING OVER BUT ITS CLOSE ( 5 DAY TURNING )

30 DAY 5 WAVES UP A TOP IS DUE .

TRIN NOTES

RED = 10 DAY TRIN 

10 TRIN IS NATURALLY INVERTED SO ITS BACKWARDS THINKING ON THIS .

A CLOSE BELOW 1.00 GIVES AN OVERBOUGHT READING , A FOLLOWING CLOSE AFTER 

A CLOSE BELOW 1.00 WHICH IS THEN ABOVE 1.00 GIVES A SELL SIGNAL .

WHEN THE 10 TRIN ( IN RED ) MOVES HIGHER , THE DOW MOVES LOWER .

THE 10 TRIN HAS RISEN IN 5 WAVES ( BEARISH ) IT IS NOW DROPPING IN 3 WAVES AS THE 

DOW RISES , THIS IS THEREFORE A BEARISH SIGNAL AND IMPLIES A STRONGER SELL OFF IS 

SETTING UP .

PRICE ACTION 

THE 16066.11 PRICE TARGET WAS TOUCHED TODAY 

THE NEXT HIGHER KEY LEVEL SITS AT 17218.76 .

17013-17218 IS THE SWING HIGH TARGET RANGE .

TIMING TARGETS MARCH 8TH AS A HIGH .

THE INITIAL DOWNSIDE OBJECTIVE IS THE 16273-16165.86 RANGE .

IM EXPECTING THE 16165.86 PRICE LEVEL TO BE BROKEN AND THEN A NEW STRONG UPSIDE SURPRISE TO FOLLOW 

HOW THIS PLAYS OUT IN THIS PRESENT CRASH CYCLE

CHART SCALE IS A FEW DAYS OFF BASED ON THE CALENDAR .

KEY DATE = MARCH 8 ( A HIGH IS DUE ) SELL THE CLOSE OR INTO THE CLOSE .

MINIMUM 5 DAY TREND DOWN ( YET PATTERN AND INDICATORS IMPLY STRONGER DOWNSIDE POTENTIAL )

17306.50 IS AN EXTREME POTENTIAL HIGH .

NOTE : 46 13 MINUTE BARS TO THE NEXT INTRA DAY TIME ZONE .

46X13=598 TRADING MINUTES BEGINNING 0630 PST MONDAY MARCH 7TH 2016 .

0630-1300 IS THE TRADING TIME ZONE . 6 1/2 HOURS TIME 60 =390 MINUTE FOR MONDAY.

598-390=208 MINUTES AFTER MONDAYS CLOSE .

HENCE 208 MINUTES AFTER THE OPEN TUESDAY =208/60=3.466 HOURS FROM THE 0630 TUESDAY OPEN .

0630 PLUS 3 1/2 HOURS ( KEEPING IT SIMPLE YET YOU CAN NARROW IT DOWN ) 

0630+3 1/2 HOURS = 10 00 TUESDAY MORNING PST . SELL THE MARKET SHORT .

THAT IS MY TRADING PLAN FOR NEXT WEEKS TRADING .

THIS IS AN OVERALL ANALYSIS OF HOW I LOOK AT THE MARKET AND WHAT I LOOK FOR 

BEFORE MAKING A TRADE .

BOTTOM LINE: TIMING AND INDICATORS ARE MORE IMPORTANT THEN ACTUAL PRICE .

IF YOU GET THE TIMING RIGHT THEN THE ERROR IN PRICE WILL BE LESS PAINFUL .

THE GOAL IS TO GET THEM BOTH AS AN EXACT AS POSSIBLE YET THERE IS NO WAY 

YOU CAN ALWAYS ACHIEVE THIS AND THE MARKET IS THE FINAL PROOF AS TO WHETHER 

WE ARE CORRECT OR WRONG .

AS THEY SAY " ONLY TIME WILL TELL"

Feb 11 BEFORE THE OPEN

THE RISKS TO BEING BULLISH 

AN APRIL LOW ?

ITS POSSIBLE 

A CRASH CYCLE IN EFFECT ?

ITS POSSIBLE .

THE KEY WILL BE FEB 22 MARCH 8TH AND MARCH 23RD .

CAN IT TURN OUT BULLISH ?

YES IT CAN YET THE SAME DATES APPLY , FEB 22 MARCH 8TH AND MARCH 23RD .

WATCH THE 15728 LEVEL OVER THE NEXT WEEK .

BREAKING BELOW THAT LEVEL TARGETS 15057-14996 ON THE DOW 

WAVE COUNT 

TIMING

Feb 22 and march 23 are key dates !

JAN 13 2016

THIS CHART IS BEING POSTED FOLLOWING MY EARLIER POST 

THIS IS MOSTLY JUST NOTES FOR THE NYA 

KEY LEVEL IS NOT FAR BELOW THE MARKET AT 9281.28 .

A SUBJECTIVE TIME LINE IS FOR A LOW THIS MONTH ,

THE DAILY CHART OF THE DOW IS A FINER TUNED DAILY TIME .

THE KEY IS PRICE ON THIS CHART . ( 9281.28 NEEDS TO HOLD )

DOW AND SPX BELOW POSTED EARLIER TODAY 

 

JAN 13 2016

THE DIAGRAM BELOW IS OF A TYPICAL TRIANGLE FORMATION 

THE KEY TO TRIANGLE IS THE OVERLAPS OF THE B WAVES 

TAKE NOTE OF THE QUESTION I HAVE ON THIS DIAGRAM .

WHERE ARE THE OVERLAPS ON THE SPX CHART ?

SPX WEEKLY 

I HAVE NOT LABELED ALL OF THE A B C MOVES HERE YET OT IS EASY TO SEE THAT THE RALLY 

FROM THE AUGUST LOWS FAILED TO OVERLAP THE B WAVE HIGH AND IN DOING SO IT ALTERED THE 

TRIANGLE COUNT . THE ONLY WAY THIS CAN BE BULLISH AND THIS TRIANGLE BE CONSIDERED VALID 

IS IF WE BREAK BELOW THE AUGUST LOWS . THIS WOULD LABEL THE ENTIRE DROP FROM THE MAY HIGHS 

AS AN A B C DECLINE . THE KEY HOWEVER 1820.66 LOW ( A ) . IF THIS LEVEL IS BROKEN THERE IS NO 

WAY TO CALL THIS A TRIANGLE AND WOULD TARGET MUCH LOWER LEVELS .

DOW DAILY 

THE WAVE IV BOUNCE I ALLUDED TO A FEW DAYS AGO WITH SPX 1901 HAS ENDED AND WE ARE NOW IN WAVE V

OF WAVE 3 ( SEE WEEKLY SPX ) THE 16020-15913 AREA WOULD BE IDEAL YET THAT WOULD ONLY PRODUCE

ANOTHER 4TH WAVE BOUNCE FOLLOWED BY NEW LOWS .LOOKING AT THE DAILY DOW CHART 

IT IS QUESTIONABLE IF THE AUGUST LOWS WILL BE TAKEN OUT YET THE SPX CHART REQUIRES IT .

THIS WEEK IS OPTIONS EXPIRY SO I WOULD NOT TRADE GIVEN HOW THIS MARKET HAS BEEN 

SWINGING AND OPTIONS EXPIRY TENDS TO SKEW THINGS .

WATCH THE 15950 - 15913 PRICE ON THE DOW ( A POKE BELOW THE LATE SEPT 2015 LOW IS NEEDED )

GOOD LUCK TRADING 

JAN 11 2016

THIS IS A WEEKLY SPX CHART 

I ADDED THE DIAGRAM TO THIS CHART TO HELP CLARIFY MY WAVE COUNT .

THE MOST IDEAL COUNT IS THAT WE ARE IN A LARGER TRIANGLE FORMATION AND 

THIS PRESENT DROP WILL MOST LIKELY BOUNCE FROM NEAR OR AT THE 1901 LEVEL

ON THE SPX . FROM THERE WE MAY SEE A BOTTOM YET IM CALLING IT WAVE III OF WAVE C 

TO A LEVEL BELOW THE AUGUST LOWS . THE IDEAL BOTTOM THEREFORE WOULD BE NEAR 

1848.78 AND THIS ENTIRE DROP FROM THE MAY 2015 HIGHS AS BEEN NOTHING MORE THAN A 

COMPLEX C WAVE WITH IN WAVE C OF A LARGE 4TH WAVE TRIANGLE .

THE BOTTOM OF THIS WAVE WOULD FALL BETWEEN THE WEEK OF FEB 8 TO THE WEEK OF MARCH 7TH 

YET PRICE WOULD NEED TO HOLD THE 1848 LEVEL NEAR THOSE DATES .

A FURTHER BREAK DOWN BELOW 1820 WOULD IMPLY A TOP OF IMPORTANCE WAS MADE IN MAY 2015 

AND TARGET AN INITIAL TARGET 1647 IN WHAT WOULD BE AN GOING BEAR MARKET TO MUCH LOWER PRICES .

THIS CHART POSTED HERE IS THE LAST POTENTIAL AS I SEE IT IF THIS IS A BULL MARKET .

KEEP AN EYE ON THE 1901 LEVEL AS THE BOUNCE TO 1970 WOULD BE A REASONABLE SHORT TERM

TRADE . ( FOLLOWED BY A DROP )

GOOD LUCK TRADING 

JAN 7 2016

THIS IS A CHART OF THE DAILY DOW YM MARCH FUTURES CONTRACT .

THE HEAD AND SHOULDERS TOP FORMATION IS PRETTY OBVIOUS .

WHAT ISN'T SO OBVIOUS IS THE POTENTIAL 3 PEAKS DOMED HOUSE PATTERN .

THE 16155 PRICE IS KEY TO THIS PATTERN AS I SEE IT AND SO IS THE JAN 20TH DATE.

THE MARKET HAS BEEN BOTTOMING ON NEW MOONS LATELY SO IM A BIT HESITANT 

TO CALL FOR LOWER PRICES YET IM ALSO NOT GOING TO BECOME OVERLY BULLISH 

EITHER . THE BEST FIT WOULD BE A SIDEWAYS MOVEMENT WHICH IMPLIES 

THIS AS POINT 10 . TO PROVE THIS OUT WE WILL NEED TO SEE A SERIES OF 

1'S AND 2'S LABELED 1-2, I-II WHICH WILL ALSO BE POINTS 11 2 13 14 , THIS OF COURSE

IS WHAT WOULD FOLLOW POINT 10 ( IF THIS PATTERN IS CORRECT ).

BOTTOM LINE : I THINK WE ARE IN A BOTTOMING PROCESS BUT I DO NOT BELIEVE 

IT IS A TRADABLE BOTTOM OTHER THAN VERY SHORT TERM INTRA DAY .

ILL TOUCH ON THIS IN THE BIGGER PICTURE ON SUNDAYS UPDATE 

GOOD LUCK TRADING 

JAN 6 2016

I WILL POST AN UPDATE FOLLOWING TOMORROWS CLOSE .

FOR WEDNESDAY JAN 7TH 

17003 KEY RESISTANCE ON THE DOW , 16764 KEY SUPPORT .

GOOD LUCK TRADING 

DEC 20 2015

16960-16981 IS KEY SUPPORT FOR TUESDAY DEC 22 .

IF THIS LEVEL HOLDS ILL LABEL THIS A WAVE 4 OF A FURTHER DEVELOPING 5 WAVE STRUCTURE 

FROM THE AUGUST LOWS . BREAKING BELOW 16960 IS BEARISH YET THE MARKET IS BECOMING OVERSOLD 

SO I HAVE NO PLANS TO TAKE A BEARISH STANCE AGAINST THE MARKET .

A GAP UP MONDAY MORNING WOULD BE WELCOMED YET TUESDAY IS THE KEY DAY .

Dec 17 2015

VERY SHORT TERM UPDATE FOR FRIDAYS EXPIRY 

WATCH FOR A LOW NEAR THE OPEN ( FIRST HOUR OF TRADING )

KEY SUPPORT IS THE 17419.69-17391.69 .

IF THAT LEVEL HOLDS ILL TURN BULLISH AND EXIT ON THE CLOSE .

KEY RESISTANCE IS THE 17845-17872 RANGE .

BREAKING ABOVE THAT RANGE HAS MORE BULLISH IMPLICATIONS, YET AT THIS 

JUNCTURE I DO NOT FEEL THAT WILL TAKE PLACE .

NEXT UPDATE WILL BE SUNDAY .

GOOD LUCK TRADING 

 

Dec 11 2015

THE SHORT TERM TIMING MODEL CALLS TODAY A LOW 

NEXT WEEK MUST BE UP OR ID QUESTION THE ENTIRE BULL MARKET .

THE MARKET IS OVERSOLD 

MARKET IS OVERSOLD

ADVANCE DECLINE LINE ALSO GIVING AN OVERSOLD READING 

DECENNIAL PATTERN

FROM DEC 15 INTO CHRISTMAS THIS MODEL POINTS HIGHER .

 

DEC 10 2015

BE CAREFUL TOMORROW 

THIS IS A VERY SHORT TERM TRADING IDEA .

IF THE DOW PEAKS AT 0710 PST AT 17643 AND CHANGE IM GOING TO LOOK FOR A DOWN SIDE MOVE

LASTING ABOUT 2 HOURS . THIS MOVE MAY FEEL VIOLENT .

LOOK FOR LOWER SUPPORT IN THE RANGE OF 17502-17333.

A STRONG BOUNCE SHOULD THEN BEGIN AT OR NEAR 0920 . ( ABOUT 3 HOURS AFTER THE OPEN )

Good Luck Trading 

DEC 6 2015

SOMETIMES YOU JUST HAVE TO LET THE MARKET SWING AND UNDERSTAND THE BIGGER PICTURE

THIS IS A CYCLICAL COMPARISON FROM THE 1930'S- 1940'S TO TODAY .

THINK OF THE WAVE PATTERN AS WELL AS THE CYCLE'S BEING COMPARED TO .

THE RED IS THE 1932 TO 1945 TIME FRAME

THE BLACK IS THE 2010 TO DATE.

WAVE COUNT , LEADING DIAGONAL WAVE ( 1 ) SIMPLE WAVE ( 2 ) UNDER THE RULES OF ALTERNATION IF

WAVE 2 IS SIMPLE THEN WAVE 4 SHOULD BE COMPLEX . 

THE PRESENT COMPLEX WAVE ( 4 ) IM THINKING THAT IS TAKING PLACE IS THAT OF A NARROWING TRIANGLE .

THIS PLACES THE AUGUST LOWS AT THE BOTTOM OF WAVE A . WAVE B IS NOW IN ITS TOPPING PHASE

KEY RESISTANCE TO TAKE A BEARISH STANCE AGAINST I STILL FEEL IS 18159 AND CHANGE.

AS LONG AS WE SEE A POKE ABOVE 18137 WAVE B IS COMPLETE .

WAVE C DOWN IS NEXT .

THIS NEXT MINOR CYCLE TURNS UP AS WE GO INTO THE ELECTIONS .

A RELIEF RALLY PERHAPS ? WAVE ( 5 ) INTO OCT 2017 THEN A BIG BEAR MARKET 

SHORT TERM 3 PEAKS DOME HOUSE WITH WAVE COUNTS

A FINAL PUSH UPWARDS INTO DEC 9 WOULD COMPLETE MANY PATTERNS IM WATCHING .

NEW ALL-TIME HIGHS ARE ALWAYS POSSIBLE BUT I DON'T SEE THAT PLAYING OUT JUST YET 

 

NOV 25 2015

SHORT TERM TIMING MODEL IN RED THE GRAY IS THE 2 YR MODEL

AND THE BLUE ONE IS AN EXPERIMENTAL TIMING THEORY IM WORKING ON .

I'VE DRAWN OUT THE BULLISH SCENARIO HERE YET ALSO NOTING TIME IS RUNNING OUT .

THE RED SHORT TERM MODEL IS INVERTING , THIS NOW PUTS THE SHORT TERM CYCLES

AND POSSIBLY ( PROBABLY ) THERE DIRECTIONAL BIAS IN SYNK WITH THE LARGER 2 YEAR

AS WELL AS THE EXPERIMENTAL CYCLE PEAK .

UNDER THIS SET UP IT IS BEST TO BE LOOKING FOR TOPS TO SELL.

AS I POSTED YESTERDAY IM LOOKING AT THIS AS A TRIANGLE WITH IN A TRIANGLE WHICH COULD 

PEAK AS EARLY AS DEC 11 OR BY LATE JANUARY . THE JAN HIGH OR DEC HIGH ( 18149-18172 )

IS MY KEY LEVEL IM LOOKING TO TAKE A LARGER BEARISH POSITION  FROM .

SHORT TERM I STILL FAVOR A SIDEWAYS MOVE YET SHORT TERM IT LOOKS BEARISH 

THE DEC 11 2015, 2 YEAR CYCLE HIGH WOULD BE THE IDEAL PEAK OF THIS LARGER ( B ) WAVE .

abcxabc x= 17245 17245 critical short term support !

SHORT TERM CYCLE LINED UP WITH THE LONGER TERM CYCLES

ID SAY THE SAME THING : TIME IS RUNNING OUT FOR THIS PRESENT BULL PHASE .

SOMETHING IS AMISS 

A POTENTIAL SPIKE UP ABOVE 17921 TOWARDS THE 18149-18172 RANGE INTO DEC 11.

ID SELL THAT RANGE SHORT IF ITS SEEN . ( B ) TARGETS 16541( C )

INITIAL DOWNSIDE TARGET:17130

NOV 24 2015

THIS IS MY DIAGRAM FOR THE NEXT YEARS TIME FRAME

SHORT TERM I CAN SEE A 60 MINUTE CHART TRIANGLE AS WELL 

AS A LARGER WEEKLY TRIANGLE THAT MAY EXTEND INTO YEAR END .

THIS PRESENT SIDEWAYS MOVE WOULD BE LABELED A COMPLEX 4

THIS WOULD COMPLETE 5 WAVES UP FROM THE AUGUST LOWS .

THE LARGER PATTERN FOR THE YEAR CAN ALSO BE CONSIDERED 

A COMPLEX 4 TH WAVE TRIANGLE FORMATION WHICH IS ONLY NOW IN 

THE TOPPING PROCESS OF WAVE B .

BOTTOM LINE : TRADE THE RANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW WEEKS AND MONTHS 

DEPENDING ON WHERE WE ARE IN THE PATTERN.

BIGGER PICTURE : SELL 18151 ( A WEEKLY CLOSE ABOVE 18137 )

BUY NEAR 16600 .

SHORT TERM WATCH THE 17484 LEVEL AS A SHORT TERM TARGET SUPPORT ONLY .

OCT 5 2015

IM IN THE PROCESS OF CREATING A COMPUTERIZED TRADING SYSTEM WHICH WONT BE COMPLETED UNTIL LATE 

NEXT YEAR . HERE IS SOMETHING TO CONSIDER .

THIS IS WHAT I CALL AN ATR PIVOT . THESE RANGES ARE BASED ON THE ACTUAL PRICE RANGES IN THE DOW 

AND ALSO INCLUDE PRICE RETRACEMENT AS WELL AS FIBONACCI RANGES .

TODAY'S HIGH WAS RIGHT AT THE WEEKLY PIVOT , THE RED BAND ABOVE IS THE 17500 AREA IS THE SHORTER TERM

MAXIMUM BASED ON HISTORICAL RELATIONSHIPS. NOTE THE DAILY PIVOT ON THE CHART .

SEE NEXT CHART BELOW .

THE 2 YR CYCLE TURNS UP OCT 20TH AND ANOTHER CYCLE TURNS UP OCT 26TH .

DAILY ATR PIVOT 

TODAY'S RALLY JUMPED ABOVE THE UPPER ATR PIVOT BAND YET THE WEEKLY ( THE WEEK HAS NOT CLOSED YET )

HAS TESTED ITS PIVOT BAND . ANY DROP SHOULD FIND SUPPORT AT A MAXIMUM OF THE DAILY PIVOT AT 16314.47.

ALSO IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE WEEKLY CLOSING LOW WAS 16314.67 . THIS LEVEL IS NOW THE KEY SUPPORT WHICH MUST 

HOLD ON A WEEKLY CLOSING BASIS .

NOTE: THE DAILY PIVOT BAND HAS TURNED UP SLIGHTLY YET THE WEEKLY IS ONLY FLATTENING .

THE MORE I THINK ABOUT THIS MARKET THE MORE IM IN FAVOR OF HIGHER PRICES LONGER TERM 

YET SHORT TERM , THE NEXT FEW DAYS IM MIXED . KEEP IN MIND MONDAY TUESDAY NEXT WEEK IS A CYCLE HIGH .

LOOK TO SELL NEAR 17500, ( SEE SEPT 30 UPDATE ) ALSO LOOK TO BUY ABOVE 16000 ( 16314 )

ANY WEEKLY CLOSE BELOW 16000 IS FLAT OUT BEARISH .

SEPT 30 2015 

YESTERDAY I HAD A PLANE TO CATCH AND GOT A BIT NERVOUS BEING LONG THE FUTURES 

YET AFTER GETTING OFF THE PLANE I WENT BACK TO THE LONG SIDE .

THE PLAN IS THE SAME AS I POSTED BELOW . ILL KEEP MOVING MY STOPS UP 

AND WILL LOOK TO EXIT AND SIT BACK OCT 12- 13TH .

TONIGHT IS A THOUGHT AS TO THE INVERTED CRASH AS WELL AS WHAT WOULD BE A TYPICAL 

" NORMAL BOUNCE". IT LOOKS LIKE THE 17505 AREA WOULD BE MORE OF THE NORM .

A BREAK ABOVE THERE WOULD DEFINITELY CAUSE PEOPLE TO QUESTION THIS AS A COUNTER

TREND BOUNCE . REMEMBER IT IS THE FEAR OF LOSS FOR THOSE ON THE WRONG SIDE OF THE MARKET 

THAT CAUSES THESE EXTREME MOVES WHETHER ITS AN UPSIDE MOVE OR DOWN.

FOR THAT EXTREME TO GET HIT SEEMS WAY WAY OUT OF LINE , YET GIVEN THE CYCLE WE ARE IN 

IM JUST KEEPING THESE EXTREMES IN MIND AS WE DO NOT KNOW FOR SURE HOW HIGH PRICE WILL GO.

IM GOING TO MOVE MY STOPS UP AS NOTED IN MY PLAN AND JUST LET THE MARKET GO TO WHERE 

EVER IT CHOOSES , OCT 12 - 13TH IM OUT . ( UNLESS STOPPED OUT ALONG THE WAY )

INVERTED CRASH PATTERN UPDATED BELOW . 

KEY RESISTANCE BAND SITS IN THE RANGE OF 17211 TO 17505 . IF IM CORRECT OUT THE LARGER PICTURE

AND THE STRONGER BOUNCE THEN THIS LEVEL SHOULD BECOME A HUGE MAGNET AND PRICE WOULD 

SIMPLY BLOW THROUGH IT . IF NOT AND ITS OCT 12TH THEN THAT'S  IT AND IM DONE , VERY SIMPLE 

THE INVERTED CRASH HAS SO FAR BEEN WORKING YET LETS NOT GET COMPLACENT AND ASSUME ALL IS WELL .

RISK MANAGEMENT IS ALWAYS A MUST WHEN TRADING , I HAVE NO DESIRE TO OVER LEVERAGE MYSELF NOR 

DO I RISK ANYMORE THAN I CAN AFFORD TO LOSE .

DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH AND TRADE YOUR PLAN AND RISK ONLY WHAT YOU CAN AFFORD TO RISK .

THE SIMPLE RULE IN TRADING IS MANAGE YOUR MONEY OR THE MARKET WILL MANAGE IT FOR YOU AND 

AS YOU HAVE HEARD IM SURE MANY TIMES BEFORE , PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

NOW WITH ALL THAT SAID . THIS CHART IS WORKING SO IM GOING TO GO WITH IT UNTIL IT PROVES ME WRONG .

OCT 12TH 13TH IM OUT REGARDLESS OF WHERE PRICE GOES , IM HOLDING THIS AS A POSITION TRADE 

IM MOVING MY STOPS UP A LITTLE EACH DAY , IM NOT CONCERNED WITH THE INTRA DAY SWINGS .

BOTTOM LINE : IM GOING TO TAKE AS MUCH AS I CAN FROM THIS AND EXIT BASED ON TIME YET IN THE EVENT 

I GET STOPPED OUT , ILL ASSUME SOMETHING IS WRONG AND JUST SIT BACK AND WAIT FOR THE NEXT SET UP .

THIS IS MY WINDOW AND ITS THE ONLY TRADING WINDOW IM INTERESTED IN RIGHT NOW .

FOR BETTER OR WORSE IM LONG THE MARKET AND WILL LET THE MARKET DECIDE WHERE IT GOES .

THE ABOVE CHARTS GIVES SOME GUIDELINES FOR BOTH A NORMAL BOUNCE AS WELL AS THE EXTREME

AND THAT IS AN EXTREME I REALIZE .

KEEP AN EYE ON THE 16505 LEVEL OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS .

THE POINT OF THIS CHART AS WITH THE TIMING MODEL IS SIMPLY A GUIDE . THIS DOES NOT 

PREDICT WHERE PRICE WILL GO , MY GUIDE THOUGH SHOWS THAT WITH IN THIS CYCLE WE 

SHOULD BE SEEING NEW DAILY HIGHS ,TAKE NOTE OF FRIDAYS BAR . A NEW HIGH AND A CLOSE 

NEAR THE LOW . THIS MAY VERY WELL TAKE PLACE YET THEN LOOK AT THE FOLLOWING MONDAYS BAR .

THOSE WILL BE KEY PLACES TO MOVE UP STOPS ON THE FOLLOWING DAYS TRADING .

ITS PRETTY OBVIOUS THAT PLACING A STOP BELOW THURSDAYS ( ASSUMING TOMORROW IS UP)

 LOW ON MONDAYS CLOSE  SHOULD NOT CAUSE US TO BE STOPPED OUT IF THIS PATTERN IS WORKING .

IF WE ARE STOPPED OUT THEN SOMETHING IS WRONG . YET I DON'T WANT TOP GET TO CARRIED AWAY 

ASSUMING THIS WILL WORK OUT PERFECTLY , WHAT IM LOOKING FOR IS THE RHYME.

SO ILL JUST MOVE THE STOPS UP EVERY DAY OR SO LEAVING PLENTY OF ROOM FOR THIS MARKET TO SWING 

AROUND INTRA DAY TO PROTECT FROM LOSS. THE FOCUS ON PROFIT IS NOT UNTIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK .

ANOTHER THING TO TAKE FROM THIS CHART IS THAT PRICE EXPANDS ( RANGE EXPANSION )

THIS RANGE EXPANSION IS THE FEAR OF LOSS I TALKED ABOUT , AS THE TREND MOVES HIGHER AND 

THE DAYS GO BY THE FEAR OF LOSS INCREASES WHICH CAUSES MORE TO STOP THEM SELVES OUT 

OR THE BUY STOPS GET TRIGGERED . THIS CREATES A FURTHER INCREASE IN THE PRICE RANGE .

LASTLY WE ARE STILL IN THE EARLY STAGES ( IF THIS IS GOING TO WORK ) SO THE RANGE IS SMALL 

BECAUSE THOSE WHO ARE SHORT THE MARKET ARE STILL CONVINCED THE MARKET WILL DECLINE .

IF THEY ADD TO THERE BEARISH POSITIONS AS THE MARKET RISES THE PAIN WILL INCREASE EXPONENTIALLY

WHICH THEN ONLY CREATES MORE PAIN AND THEN WE GET FURTHER RANGE EXPANSION AND HIGHER PRICES.

THIS IS NOTHING ABOUT THE FUNDAMENTALS OR THE ECONOMY  .

BOTTOM LINE : ILL LET THIS PLAY OUT AND SEE WHAT HAPPENS , IM NOT BETTING THE FARM AS THIS IS NOT 

A GET RICH OVERNIGHT TRADE . ITS JUST A TRADE WITH REASONABLE RISK AND A POTENTIAL EXTREME REWARD.

GOOD LUCK TRADING 

SEPT 29 2015

I HAVE ABANDONED MY SPECULATIVE TRADES AND IM NOW FLAT .

IM GOING TO SIT BACK UNTIL OCT 26TH . IM BEGINNING TO SEE SEVERAL RHYTHMS

TAKING PLACE AND WHILE THIS MARKET LOOKS WEEK TODAY I AM NOT ABLE 

TO TRADE TO THE DOWNSIDE AT THIS TIME DO TO MY JOB WHICH WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT 

TO WATCH ON A SHORT TERM BASIS .

ILL UPDATE A FEW THINGS TONIGHT YET MY BIAS IS MOE CHOPPY GRINDING ACTION AND 

THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG UP MOVE STILL EXISTS YET I MADE IT CLEAR THAT TODAY NEEDED

TO BE AN UP DAY AND SO FAR THE MARKET HAS YET TO PROVE THAT OUT .

THAT SAID IM FLAT AND ILL WAIT UNTIL OCT 26TH BEFORE MAKING ANY TRADES .

SEE YOU TONIGHT 

SEPT 28 2015

IF YOU HAVE EVER SUFFERED THROUGH A GUT WRENCHING LOSS OR WOKEN UP 

WITH THE STOCK MARKET DOWN AND HAD THE FEAR OF LOSS THEN YOU WILL 

UNDERSTAND THIS CHART .

WE DO NOT ACTUALLY KNOW IF THIS WILL WORK OR HOW HIGH PRICES WILL ACTUALLY GO 

OF IF THIS MARKET WONT JUST COLLAPSE FURTHER . YET WHAT IF TOMORROW THE DOW RALLIES

SAY 300 POINTS ? WHAT WILL ALL THOSE WITH SHORT POSITIONS DO ? WILL THEY BE FEARFUL OF A LOSS ?

IF SO WE SHOULD UNDERSTAND THAT PAIN THEY FEEL AND WHY THE BUY STOPS COULD BE TRIGGERED 

WITH THE POTENTIAL TO SEND THIS MARKET TO NEW HIGHS IN THE NEXT 10 TRADING DAYS .

17634 IS KEY RESISTANCE WHICH MAY BE ALL WE GET ON THIS BOUNCE YET LETS NOT FORGET 

THE FEAR OF LOSS FROM THOSE WHO TOOK MORE SHORT POSITIONS TODAY .

SHORT TERM TIMING MODEL BELOW .

SHORT TERM TIMING MODEL 

THE RISK OF A FURTHER DROP IS HUGE AND TODAY'S MARKET LOOKED UGLY ,

YET IF MY TIMING IS CORRECT ( THE RED LINE ) AND THE CRASH CYCLE IS INVERTED AS SHOWN ABOVE 

THEN A SPECULATIVE 10 TRADING DAY TRADE  IS WARRANTED . 

AS NOTED ABOVE TODAY'S LOWS ARE EXTREMELY IMPORTANT AS IS TUESDAYS MARKET ACTION WHICH REALLY 

MUST BE UP OR SOMETHING IS VERY WRONG .

LASTLY : ONCE THIS BOUNCE INTO OCT 12-13TH ENDS ( ASSUMING IM RIGHT ) 

THE NEXT MOST IMPORTANT CYCLE IS OCT 26TH . 

FOR THIS REASON IM NOT GOING TO PAY MUCH ATTENTION TO THE MARKET MUCH PAST OCT 12-13TH .UNTIL 

LATE OCTOBER TO AS LATE AS MID NOVEMBER DEPENDING  ( THE MAJOR LOW IN MY MODEL , IN RED )

ILL DO A SHORT UPDATE TUESDAY AFTER THE CLOSE .

GOOD LUCK TRADING 

SEPT 25 2015

MAJOR MARKET INDEX 

THE BASICS OF PIVOT POINT TRADING ARE THIS .

WHEN PRICE IS ABOVE THE PIVOT THE TREND IS UP 

WHEN PRICE IS BELOW THE PIVOT THE TREND IS DOWN .

WHEN PRICE BREAKS BELOW THE PIVOT YOU LOOK FOR A TEST OF SUPPORT ( S1 )

WHEN PRICE BREAKS ABOVE THE PIVOT YOU LOOK FOR A TEST OF RESISTANCE ( R1 )

IF THE MARKET AS A WHOLE BREAKS BACK ABOVE LAST WEEKS HIGH ( THE WEEK ENDING SEPT 18TH )

IT WOULD SIGNAL A TEST OF THE HIGHS AND LEAVES THE DOOR OPEN FOR NEW ALL TIME HIGHS .

ADDITIONALLY, BREAKING ABOVE LAST WEEKS HIGHS TURNS THE YEARLY CHART UP .

NOTE: THE LONGER TERM INDICATOR ON THIS CHART TURNED UP THIS WEEK FROM DEEP OVERSOLD 

READINGS .  

ALSO NOTE THE 15 WEEK PERIODICITY OF SOME MAJOR SWINGS IN PRICES . THE NEXT 15 WEEK PERIOD 

IS THE WEEK OF DEC 6 2015.

SINCE THIS IS A WEEKLY CHART ILL NOTE THAT NEXT WEEK REALLY SHOULD BE UP ! OR SOMETHING IS WRONG

WITH ALL OF MY WORK 

DOW 30 MINUTE CHART 

ON A VERY SHORT TERM BASIS IM BEGINNING TO THIS WE ARE IN FOR NOT ONLY A LARGE RISE

IN PRICE BUT ALSO A SCARY DECLINE WHISH FOLLOWS .

THE NET EFFECT OF THIS PATTERN IMPLIES A WHOLE LOT OF NOTHING ( SIDEWAYS MARKET ACTION )

TO CALL FOR A ROUGHLY 2000 POINT RISE IN THE DOW OVER THE NEXT 2 WEEKS OF TRADING IS 

A BIT OPTIMISTIC YET THAT'S WHAT IM ALLOWING FOR .

THE KEY WILL BE TUESDAYS MARKET ACTION WHICH MUST BE UP !

VERY SHORT TERM CHART 

THERE IS A FEW DISCREPANCIES IN THE 13 MINUTE BAR CHART IN TERMS OF THE WAVE COUNT .

MY FOCUS BEING PRIMARILY WITH TIMING, I LOOK FOR 5 WAVE MOVES IN WHICH TO DEFINE TURN MOMENTS.

WE HAD 2 TIME LINES NEAR THE CLOSE TODAY , THE 2ND ONE AT THE CLOSE .

ANY TIMELINE ON THE CLOSE OF THE DAY LEAVES THE TIMING OPEN TO THE FOLLOWING DAYS OPEN .

NOTE THE LABELING OF THE DECLINE AS AN A B C DECLINE . A 5TH WAVE DOWN WOULD IMPLY A GAP DOWN 

OPEN MONDAY AT OR NEAR 16191.46 . WHILE THIS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE I HAVE DOUBTS THAT THIS WILL 

BE WHAT WE SEE . 

KEEP IN MIND THE 3 PEAKS DOMED HOUSE PATTERN ABOVE AND YOU CAN SEE WHY IM FAVORING A GAP 

UP ON MONDAY WITH AN EXTENDED RISE TO POINT 15  IN THE 17,400-17600 PRICE RANGE . 

NO MATTER HOW YOU LABEL THIS I STILL THINK WE ARE GOING TO SEE A STRONGER RALLY UNFOLD .

TUESDAY MARKET ACTION MUST BE UP OR SOMETHING IS NOT RIGHT !

SHORT TERM TIMING MODEL .

KEEPING THE 3 PEAKS DOMED HOUSE PATTERN IN MIND I CAN SEE HOW THIS TIMING MODEL MAY CONTINUE TO 

HOLD AN ACCURATE SWING COUNT YET UNTIL WE ACTUALLY SEE WHAT HAPPENS WE ALL MUST TRADE BY 

WHAT WE SEE NOT BY WHAT WE THINK .

THE NEXT SWING PERIOD IS TECHNICALLY DUE FROM MONDAY SEPT 28TH ( A LOW ) TO MONDAY OCT 12TH ( A HIGH )

BOTTOM LINE : TUESDAYS MARKET ACTION MUST BE UP 

INVERTED 8 MONTH CRASH PATTERN .

THE CALCULATIONS ON THIS CHART ARE CREATED BY USING TYPICAL CRASH PERCENTAGE MOVES .

IF THIS HAPPENS TO PLAY OUT THEN GREAT YET THE POINT IS MORE ABOUT TIMING AND THE POTENTIAL 

FOR A STRONG THAN NORMAL MOVEMENT IN PRICE TO THE UPSIDE .

AS A SPECULATOR ALL WE GET IS RISK REWARD TO GO BY SO WE LOOK AT THE ODDS AND PLACE OUR TRADES 

AND FOR ME I TRY TO DEFINE THE TIME PERIOD TO TRADE WITH IN . BASED ON THIS ANALYSIS WE HAVE MONDAY 

SEPT 28TH TO TUESDAY OCT 13TH TO KEEP A BULLISH BIAS .

WHAT EVER HAPPENS AFTER OCT 12TH 13TH IS NOT MY CONCERN AT THIS JUNCTURE .

( ILL BE LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL 3 PEAKS DOMED HOUSE PATTERN AT THAT TIME AND SEE IF THERE IS ANY VALIDITY 

TO IT BEFORE ASSUMING WE WILL GET THE LARGER DROP )

16323 IS MONDAYS PIVOT AND WE CLOSED SLIGHTLY BELOW THAT LEVEL ON FRIDAY .

FOR MONDAY ONLY THE EXPECTED RANGE IS : BASED ON THE DAILY PIVOT OF 16323 RANGE 16460 16196 ( APPROX 264 PT RANGE )

IF WE GAP UP WE ADD 264 PTS TO THE LOW ( CASH DOW ) AND LOOK FOR A HIGH YET ID BE CAREFUL SELLING SHORT ANY 

GAP UP OPEN MONDAY . EXAMPLE , DOW GAPS UP AND OPENS AT 16323 AND CONTINUES HIGHER , I WOULD LOOK FOR 

RESISTANCE IN THAT CASE 264 PTS PLUS THE LOW AT 16323 AT 16587 .

ON THE OTHER HAND USING THE PIVOT AND RANGE DATA ABOVE . AN OPENING GAP DOWN ID INITIALLY LOOK FOR SUPPORT 

NEAR 16196 ( KEEP IN MIND THE LATE DAY SELL OFF ON FRIDAY BEING ONLY 3 WAVES SO FAR ) SEE THE WAVE COUNT 13 MINUTE 

CHART ABOVE . ( SEEING 5 WAVES DOWN WOULD BE A WARNING SIGN THAT SOMETHING IS A MISS ) 

BOTTOM LINE :TUESDAYS MARKET ACTION MUST BE UP 

SEPT 17 2017

FUTURES AN OPTIONS EXPIRY IS AMONGST US .

THE RED BARS ARE THE TYPICAL 8 MONTH CRASH PATTERN INVERTED .

MY FAILURE TO SEE THIS INVERSION IN ADVANCE HAS BEEN MY FAILURE THIS YEAR .

WHAT THIS IMPLIES SHORT TERM IS THAT FRIDAY - MONDAY SHOULD BE A TOP FOLLOWED

BY A DROP NEXT WEEK .

BOTTOM LINE : IM LOOKING TO BUY SEPT 25TH 28TH .

THE POTENTIAL WITH THIS PATTERN CALLS FOR NEW ALL TIME HIGHS IN SHORT ORDER .

THE ABOVE CHART INCLUDES BOTH SET UPS WHICH PRESENT THEMSELVES EACH YEAR 

THIS CHART BELOW FOCUSES ON THE SHORT TERM ZOOMED IN CYCLE THAT WE ARE 

IN RIGHT NOW .

SHORT TERM TIMING MODEL ( ALSO POSTED AT THE TOP OF THIS PAGE )

THIS IS THE NORMAL VIEW .

MY THOUGHTS OF AN INVERSION EARLIER IN THE YEAR WERE WRONG .

HERE IS HOW THE MARKET HAS FOLLOWED THE NORMAL VIEWED MODEL

NOTE: THE RED ( SHORT TERM MODEL ) CALLS FOR A TURN DOWN NEXT WEEK

WITH MONDAY WITH MONDAY SEPT 28TH BEING THE SWING LOW .

THE FOLLOWING WEEK THE GRAY LINE ( 2 YEAR CYCLE TURNS UP)

NOW THINK THROUGH THE INVERTED CRASH PATTERNS ABOVE AND 

DO SOME RESEARCH ON THE INDICATORS ( THE MARKET IS STILL OVERSOLD.

BOTTOM LINE : DESPITE THE SHORT TERM DOWN MOVE BEING EXPECTED 

I FEEL IT IS BEST TO FOCUS ON THE UPWARD MOVE AND ITS POTENTIAL .

DAILY/WEEKLY OSCILLATOR

THIS OSCILLATOR IS A COMBINATION OF THE 20 DAY OSCILLATOR ALONG WITH THE WEEKLY .

I DO THIS TO GIVE ME A SHORTER TERM SIGNAL WITH IN A LONGER TERM INDICATOR .

THE PREVIOUS LOWS IN THIS INDICATOR WERE IN THE WEEKS OF AS NOTED ON THE CHART .

 

DOW WEEKLY CHART :

THE ARROWS POINT TO THE WEEKLY BARS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DATES ON THE OSCILLATOR ABOVE  .

WEEKLY OSCILLATOR FROM 1987 TO DATE :

THIS INDICATOR DOES NOT COME DOWN TO THESE LEVELS ALL THAT OFTEN .

SAME CHART AS ABOVE FROM 1942 TO DATE 

NOTE THE 1.92 LEVEL OVER THE PAST 73 YEARS.

SEPT 5 2015

BULL GARTLY AND BEAR GARTLY ( LOOK THEM UP FOR MORE INFORMATION )

CHART IS THE HOURLY DOW MINI CONTRACT FOR SEPTEMBER EXPIRY .

15785 IS KEY SUPPORT TO THIS PATTERN .

15821 -15811 IS THE KEY BUY POINT NEAR THE END OF TUESDAYS TRADING .

THE MARKET IS CLOSED ON MONDAY .

ONCE I SEE THE OPENING IN THE OVERNIGHT SESSION EARLY TUESDAY MORNING 

I WILL BE ABLE TO CALCULATE WITH IN THE HOUR WHAT TIME THIS LOW POINT SHOULD

IDEAL COME IN AT . PRESENTLY IT IS SHOWING 38 HOURLY BARS TO GO, CONSIDERING 

THE OVERNIGHT TRADING .

USING THE DOW CASH ( INDU ) INDEX IT IS SHOWING 6 HOURS OF ACTUAL MARKET ACTION

NEEDED TO FULFILL THE TIME COMPONENT OF THIS DECLINE .

I HAVE NO INTEREST AT THIS TIME TRADING THE DOWN SIDE IN THIS MARKET .

MY BIAS IS TO CATCH THE LOW AND TRADE IT TO THE UPSIDE USING EITHER THE 

SEPT 2015 DOW MINI OR THE DEC DOW MINI OR A COMBINATION OF BOTH .

KEEP IN MIND FUTURES AND OPTIONS EXPIRY ON THE 3RD THURSDAY/FRIDAY OF THE MONTH .

THAT WOULD BE SEPT 17-18TH .

 

AUG 22 2015

WAS THIS DROP ANY DIFFERENT THEN THE PAST ?

WAVE COUNT IM WORKING WITH 

THIS IS NOT CAST IN STONE .

JUST SOMETHING TO CONSIDER 

USING ELLIOTT WAVE THEORY IS SUBJECTIVE YET THE TIME COUNT 

IMPLIES TODAY'S LOW'S NOW MATTER LONG TERM .

THERE IS A CYCLE LOW DUE AT THE END OF THE MONTH 

 TODAY'S LOWS MAY END OF BEING JUST A C WAVE OF A 

LARGER SIDEWAYS PATTERN . 

TO PROVE THIS CORRECT THE MARKET WOULD NEED TO GRIND BACK UP 

AND TEST THE 18000 LEVEL .

AUG 21 2015

WATCH THE 700-900 DMA 

CRASH OF 1987 

COLLAPSE IN 1990

WHY 2.2 TIMES A IS USED TO CALCULATE WAVE C.

FIRST EXAMPLE SHOWN BELOW USING WEEKLY CHART .

ILL BEGIN WITH THE 1987 CRASH AND NOTE IN THIS EXAMPLE 

3.2 TIMES A WOULD HAVE GOTTEN YOU CLOSER TO THE BOTTOM 

YET 2.2 TIMES A I FIND SHOWS UP MUCH MORE OFTEN AS YOU 

WILL SEE WITH THE FOLLOWING CHARTS .

THE FOCUS OF THESE ARE 2 FOLD .

500 700 900 DMA'S COMBINED WITH THE 2.2 TIMES A TO TARGET WAVE C.

NOTE THE 700-900 DMA ABOVE .

1987 CRASH.

1990 COLLAPSE DAILY 

NOTE THE COMBINATION USING BOTH THE 2.2-3.2 TIMES A TO TARGET C

AS WELL AS THE 500, 700-900 DMA .

IN THE CASE THE MARKET NEVER HIT THE 3.2 EXTENSION IS STALLED AT 

THE 900 DMA . IT DID BOUNCE FROM THE 2.2 AND 500 DMA WE SHOULD NOTE.

1991

A TRIANGLE B THEN C PRETTY .

THE 2.2 TIMES A NAILED THE BOTTOM .

THE 500 DMA NEVER EVEN GOT TOUCHED.

1994 

A LITTLE DIFFERENT MATH YET THE SAME 2.2 TO 3.2 EXTENSIONS APPLIED .

ALSO NOTE THE 500 DMA HELD AND WAS NOT TOUCHED IN THE FIRST EXAMPLE

YET IN THE 2ND EXAMPLE ( SAME CHART ) THE 500 DMA WAS TOUCHED AND THE 2.2

EXTENSION WAS YOUR TRIGGER TO BUY .

1996

THE 500 DMA WAS NOT TOUCHED AND YET THE 2.2 EXTENSION NAILED THE LOW 

1997 

2 DIFFERENT WAYS TO CALCULATE A TARGET FOR C .

BOTH WERE CLOSE YET TYPICAL A B C EQUATION WAS MORE ACCURATE .

1997 AGAIN 

1998

2 CALCULATIONS USING THE 2.2 EXTENSION .

THE 500 DMA TESTED .

THE 2.2 EXTENSION BEING THE BUY TRIGGER .

2001 TO 2003

NOTE THE BREAK BELOW THE 500-900 DMA'S SIGNALED A MUCH DEEPER

BEAR MARKET YET AS YOU CAN SEE THE 2.2 AND 3.2 EXTENSIONS STILL 

WERE GREAT GUIDES FOR TARGETING THE LOWS BOTH IN 2001 AS WELL

AS 2002-2003.

2007-2009 CRASH.

NOTE THE PAUSE AT THE 700 DMA 

ALSO NOTE HOW THE RED ( 900 DMA BECAME RESISTANCE )

THE 2.2 EXTENSION ONCE AGAN BECAME A GREAT GUIDE FOR 

A BUY TRIGGER .

2011-2012

3 EXAMPLES

ID ADD THIS THE CROSS OVER OF THE 700-900 MOVING AVERAGES WAS 

ANOTHER BULLISH SIGNAL IN 2011.

2014

THE POINT TO ALL OF THIS IS PRETTY OBVIOUS .

I USE THIS 2.2 TO 3.2 CALCULATION BECAUSE AS YOU HAVE SEEN 

THAT OVER THE PAST 28 YEARS OF DATA SHOWN IT WORKS A LOT .

I COULD GO BACK FURTHER IN TIME YET THIS IS THE SIMPLEST WAY 

TO SHOW THIS WITH OUT SPENDING UNTOLD AMOUNT OF TIME TO GET IT OUT.

THE MARKET TODAY .

IS TODAY ANY DIFFERENT THEN THE PAST 28 YEARS ?

FRIDAYS CLOSE WAS SLIGHTLY BELOW THE 2.2 EXTENSION .

IF WE DID NOT BOTTOM ON FRIDAY THEN I WOULD LOOK AT 

THE 16152-16200 RANGE FOR THE NEXT LOWER SUPPORT LEVEL .

THIS IS A COMBINATION OF BOTH A 3.2 EXTENSION AND A 2.2 EXTENSION 

AS WELL AS THE 700 DMA . THE INITIAL BOUNCE IF ONE DEVELOPS SHOULD 

BRING THE MARKET BACK UP TEST THE 16789-16915 AREA .

WORKING THROUGH INDICATORS THIS WEEKEND AS WELL AS SOME SOFTWARE

PROGRAMMING .

BOTTOM LINE: WATCH THE 700 DMA AS WELL AS THE 16190 PRICE AS YOUR TRIGGER .

THE LOWER RANGES MENTIONED ABOVE MAY GET YOU BOTTOM TICK YET THE 700 DMA

IS THE KEY .

XOM BELOW ( TAKE A LOOK AT )

XOM 

THIS STOCK IS SHOWING A VERY CLEAN 3 PEAKS DOMED HOUSE PATTERN .

HERE IS AN EXAMPLE OF MANY COMBINATIONS ALL COMING TOGETHER AT 

THE SAME TIME . PATTERN AND PRICE ARE NEAR SUPPORT WHICH MAY NOT HOLD

YET SHOULD GIVE US A SIGNAL FOR AT LEAST A BOUNCE IN THE MAJOR INDEXES .

THE LOWER SUPPORT IN THE MID 60'S WILL COMPLETE THE 3 PEAKS DOMED HOUSE

PATTERN. NOTE THE 2.2 AND 3.2 EXTENSIONS !

HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND 

JULY 10 2015

SEE TIMING MODEL ABOVE

JULY 17-20TH IS THE NEXT TURN 

JUNE 23 2015

AN ODD COINCIDENCE PERHAPS YET WORTH LOOKING AT FROM TIME TO TIME.

ITS A VERY SHORT TERM EFFECT .

LETS SEE HOW WEDNESDAYS MARKET TURNS OUT .

This storm has been going on for 24 hours.

JUNE 21 2015

NOTE: THE 2 YEAR CYCLE IS POINTING HIGHER INTO JULY 17TH ( SEE THE TOP OF THIS PAGE )

CRASH CYCLE SHOWN BELOW IS AT AN INTERESTING JUNCTURE.

IF THIS OVERLAY HOLDS TRUE THEN THIS MARKET SHOULD BE ON THE VERGE OF A STRONG 

BREAKOUT TO THE UPSIDE .

 

DECENNIAL PATTERN

18006 IS NOW KEY SUPPORT .

SEE NOTE ON CHART .

 

SEPT DOW MINI CONTRACT

BREAKING TODAY'S HIGHS SHOULD BRING IN A SURGE TO TEST AND MOST LIKELY 

BREAK THE ALL TIME HIGHS .

JUNE 20 2015

NOTE THE TIMING MODEL ABOVE IN REGARDS TO THE DOW AND STOCK INDEXES 

LAST FRIDAY WAS A TURN DAY ( A LOW WAS DUE , JUNE 9TH WAS THE LOW IN THE 

2 YR CYCLE ) NEXT WEEK ACCORDING TO SOME IS A BEARISH WEEK DO TO A HISTORIC 

SEASONAL BIAS FOLLOWING THE TRIPLE WITCHING PERIOD . 

MY BIAS REMAINS UPWARDS

MONDAYS UPDATE WILL GO INTO DETAILS OF THE STOCK INDEXES 

MONTHLY GOLD SILVER RATIO 

IM SEEING THE MONTH OF OCT 2015 AS A SIGNIFICANT TURN MONTH 

FOR THIS RATIO . ( SILVER SHOULD BE BOTTOMING RELATIVE TO GOLD AT THIS TURN ) 

THE ZOOMED IN PORTION OF THE PAST SEVERAL YEARS 

THERE HAS BEEN AN 18 MONTH PERIODICITY WHICH IS COUNTED

AS A TOP TO TOP TO BOTTOM TO BOTTOM ( THE OCT 2015 PERIOD SHOULD BE A LOW ) 

GOLD SILVER RATIO PATTERN IM WATCHING 

THE RATIO IS NOW AT 13 , A BREAK BELOW 11 WOULD COMPLETE THE PATTERN 

AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY OR IN THE MONTH OF OCT 2015.

THIS KEEPS ME NEUTRAL THE GOLD AND SILVER MARKETS AS WELL AS THE GOLD AND 

SILVER STOCKS AT THIS TIME 

HUI 

THE PATTERN IN THE HUI INDEX TECHNICALLY WAS COMPLETED ON THE BREAK BELOW 

150.27 YET AS MENTIONED SEVERAL TIMES , THE FAILURE TO GO BACK AND TEST THE 226.02 LEVEL

LEAVES THE DOOR OPEN FOR NEW LOWS . LOWER SUPPORT SITS JUST BELOW 100 AND THE 

84.47 LEVEL WOULD BE AN EXTREME .

I LOOK AT THIS AS A BOTTOMING PROCESS WHICH IS WHY I HAVE CONTINUED TO POINT UPWARDS

YET AS I HAVE SAID MANY TIMES IM ONLY FOLLOWING THIS WITH A BULLISH BIAS WITH NO TRADES

ON SINCE I HAVE NOT HAD ANY CONFIRMATION A BOTTOM IS IN PLACE .

May 29 2015

NEXT KEY DATE IS JUNE 2 ( ALSO JUNE 9 )

DOWNSIDE TARGET FOR NEXT WEEK ( 17808-17789) 17795 IS THE KEY LEVEL TO WATCH 

THE 2 YEAR CYCLE TURNS UP STRONGLY AND RUNS INTO JULY .

NOTE:17795 IS MID POINT ON THE CHART 

THE EXTREME SUPPORT SHOWING UP IN THE WEEKLY CHART

SITS AT 17495

AVERAGING EVERYTHING OUT ( DAILY ,WEEKLY ) 17808+17789+17795+17495/4=17721<-- THAT MAY BE ALL WE GET !

A DROP TO 17721 WOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE DROP IN LATE MARCH TO EARLY APRIL

ADVANCE DECLINE LINE 

THE 5 DAY IN BLUE IS SHOWING A BULLISH DIVERGENCE AND IS BECOMING OVERSOLD

THE 10 DAY HAS MORE ROOM AND HAS NOT GIVING ANY BULLISH DIVERGENCE AS OF TODAY'S CLOSE

BOTTOM LINE : NEXT WEEK SHOULD SEE A DECENT BOTTOM TO TRADE ON.

10 TRIN 

THIS INDICATOR IS GIVING A MIXED MESSAGE .

ITS TYPICAL OVERSOLD LEVEL IS 1.40 AND YOU LOOK FOR A CLOSE ABOVE 1.40

FOLLOWED BY A CLOSE BACK BELOW 1.40 TO GIVE THE BUY SIGNAL .

AT IT FALLS IT IMPLIES A BULLISH MARKET AND WHEN IT RISES ITS A BEARISH MARKET .

WE WOULD NEED TO SEE A SPIKE DOWN IN STOCKS FOR THIS TO GIVE AN 

OVERSOLD READING ON MONDAY .. 

LASTLY AND THIS IS AN OBSERVATION I HAVE NOTED OVER THE YEARS .

LOOK FOR HIGHS APPROXIMATELY 6 DAYS APART ON THIS FOR TIMING PURPOSES 

60 MINUTE TRIN SPIKES

READ THE CHART .

HUI

THE GOLD STOCKS INDEX STILL HAS FAILED TO PROVE ITSELF AS FAR AS IM CONCERNED

IF I HAVE THE LABELING CORRECT WE ARE NOW SEEING THE BOTTOM OF PT 12 .

MY CONCERN THOUGH IS WE NEVER SAW A TEST OF 226.02 AND FAILING TO DO THAT 

LEAVES THE DOOR OPEN FOR NEW LOWS .

AS WE ENTER THIS 2 YEAR CYCLE SWING LOW THOUGH I THINK ITS PRUDENT TO SEE HOW 

THIS INDEX REACTS .

 

APRIL 10 EARLY MORNING

THIS IS A FOLLOW UP OF THE CRASH CYCLE WE ARE CURRENTLY IN .

THIS IS LOOKING RATHER BULLISH .

I WONT BE BACK HOME UNTIL AROUND APRIL 28TH .

NEXT WEEKS MARKET ACTION WILL BE VERY TELLING .

MY BIAS IS WE HEAD HIGHER .

BLACK DOTTED LINE: DOW DAILY CLOSES .

RED AND BLUE BARS : TYPICAL CRASH CYCLE INVERTED ( BULLISH INTERPRETATION )

BOTTOM LINE :FOLLOW THE RHYTHM NOT THE PRICE PROJECTION 

MID SECTION COUNT ( $NYA )

ANOTHER FOLLOW UP TO THE MARCH 16TH UPDATE .

BASED ON THIS I CONCLUDED THAT THE MARCH 11TH DATE WAS THE STARTING POINT OF A NEW ADVANCE.

SO FAR THIS IS HOLDING TRUE .

BOTTOM LINE : A BREAK OUT TO NEW HIGHS TARGETS MUCH HIGHER PRICES.

MARCH 23 2015

ILL BE AWAY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE WEEKS AND OVERALL 

UPDATES WILL BE SHORT OVER THE NEXT MONTH .

KEEP AN EYE ON APRIL 4TH 

THIS IS WHERE THE DOW SITS TODAY IN REGARDS TO THE CRASH PATTERN.

THERE ARE ISSUES WITH THIS THAT TO ME SAYS QUESTION THE MARKETS ABILITY 

TO REALLY BREAK DOWN .

CYCLES ARE CYCLES THOUGH AND UNTIL WE GET TO APRIL 4TH IT IS TO SOON

TO SAY WHICH WAY THE MARKET WILL GO . THAT SAID MY BIAS IS WE ARE GOING

TO SEE HIGHER PRICES THIS YEAR .

DOW AND THE LONGER CRASH PATTERN FOLLOW UP .

LOOK AT THE TIMING MODEL AT THE TOP OF THE PAGE .

NOTE : APRIL 23 AND MAY 21 ON THE MODEL ABOVE .

I INVERTED THE SHORT TERM MODEL STATING IM EXPECTING AN INVERSION .

THAT IS THE RISK TO THE MARKET AS I SEE IT AND IT DOVE TAILS WITH 

THE PRESENT PATTERN SHOWN HERE BELOW .

OR DOES IT ?

I MENTIONED IN THE MARCH 16TH UPDATE THAT THE MARCH 11 LOWS ARE NOW KEY SUPPORT

AND EXPLAINED WHY .

KEEP THAT IN MIND AS WE GO FORWARD .

THIS CHART IS FOR CYCLICAL THINKING ONLY AND IS NOT ANY TYPE OF PRICE PROJECTION AT ALL .

THE POINT OF THIS IS SIMPLE : WHAT IF IM WRONG ABOUT THE BULLISH CASE AND WHERE ARE WE 

IN THE BEARISH CYCLE IF IT IS INDEED BEARISH .

BOTTOM LINE :WERE AT AN INFLECTION POINT AND THE MARKET WILL TELL US IN ADVANCE WHERE IT IS GOING .

APRIL 9 TO APRIL 23RD-MAY 7TH SHOULD BE A STRONG MOVE !

WITH THE 2 YR CYCLE ALREADY BEHIND US I HAVE TO TRUST MY MODEL AND KEEP A BULLISH BIAS .

MY CONCERN WOULD BE A BREAK BELOW THE MARCH 11 LOWS ( SEE MARCH 16TH UPDATE )

THE MARCH 11TH LOW TARGETS A DEC 11TH HIGH 

( THE DIAGRAM EXPLAINS IT ,MARCH 16TH UPDATE )

GOLD BUGS INDEX

$HUI

THE FAILURE TO EVEN TOUCH 226.02 LEAVES THE DOOR OPEN FOR NEW LOWS IN THIS INDEX 

SO IM PRE MATURE WITH THE LABELING .

ASSUMING  THIS INDEX IS ABOUT TO TURN UP A TEST OF 226.02 IS NEEDED AND WOULD BE LABELED PT 13

WHICH WOULD BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DROP BEFORE ANY STRONG RALLY .

BOTTOM LINE : IM BULLISH THE INDEX YET HAVE NO INTENSIONS OF MAKING ANY TRADES AT THIS TIME 

AND WILL SIT OUT ANY BOUNCE AND WAIT FOR THE PATTERN TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP .

LOWER SUPPORT IF THIS INDEX BREAKS DOWN SIT IN THE 104-84 RANGE ( 84.47 BEING THE EXTREME )

MARCH 20 2015

THE 8 YEAR BULL MARKET FROM AUGUST 1921 TO SEPT 1929

THE DOW RALLIED FROM 63 AND CHANGE TO 381 AND CHANGE CLOSE TO CLOSE.

SEE BELOW FOR THIS OVERLAY 

AND NOTE THE 183 LEVEL ON THIS CHART WHICH WAS THE 6 YEAR MARK BACK THEN .

DOW 

2009 TO March 13 2015 IS IN RED .

NO OVERLAY EVER HOLDS TRUE PERFECTLY AND I AM IN NO WAY IMPLYING DOW 38000.

THE QUESTION IS SIMPLE THOUGH , WHAT HAPPENS IF THIS MARKET JUST KEEPS MAKING 

NEW HIGHS ? BASED ON THIS OVERLAY A BREAK ABOVE 18300 TARGETS 22300 AND IF IT WAS 

TO HAPPEN ? ID BE IN AWE . ALSO NOTE THE 10300 LEVEL WHICH HELD AS SUPPORT 

14300 ( THE 2007 HIGH ROUGHLY ) WAS THE BREAKOUT AND NOW WERE TESTING THE 18300 LEVEL.

20000-20382 BECOMES THE NEXT UPSIDE TARGET . 18300 BECOMES SUPPORT ONCE WE SEE

A VALID BREAK OUT . 

JUST SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT IS ALL .

( IT'S A 100 TIMES MULTIPLE NOT 1000 )

MARCH 18

THIS IS JUST A FOLLOW UP ON THE CRASH PATTERNS

THIS IS WHAT A FAILURE WOULD LOOK LIKE IF WE SEE

BOTTOMING ACTION IN THE NEXT WEEK .

YOU WOULD LOOK FOR A LOW ON FRIDAY 

YET NO REAL BOTTOM FOR ANOTHER 2 WEEKS .

SO FAR I HAVE NOT SEEN ANY TECHNICAL BREAK DOWN .

MARCH 17 2015

BE CAREFUL ( note: march 16th update )

WE ARE IN A CRASH PATTERN TIME FRAME WHICH RUNS INTO THE END OF APRIL FOR THE MOST PART.

THESE FAIL USUALLY SURROUNDING THE SOLAR ECLIPSE WHICH IS FRIDAY MARCH 20TH .

I SCALED IT TO MATCH THE PATTERN , IM NOT LOOKING FOR AN OUTRIGHT COLLAPSE YET 

THIS MARKET HAS BEEN FOLLOWING THIS VERY CLOSELY SO VIEW THIS AS A WARNING .

SEE NEXT CHART BELOW .

SHORT TERM TIMING MODEL

BLACK IS DAILY DOW 

BLUE IS MODIFIED 2 YEAR CYCLE 

GRAY IS 2 YR CYCLE .

ALMOST ALL MAJOR COLLAPSES HAVE CORRELATED WITH THE CRASH PATTERN ABOVE TIMED

WITH THE GRAY 2 YEAR CYCLE . THE GRAY 2 YEAR CYCLE BOTTOMED FEB 2 ND . ITS NEXT MAJOR TURN POINT 

IS JUNE 9TH ( THE END OF THE CRASH CYCLE ABOVE  ) THE MODIFIED 2 YR CYCLE BOTTOMED MARCH 12TH .

THE SHORT TERM TIMING MODEL LOOKS LIKE IT IS INVERTING . THIS IMPLIES AN APRIL 23 LOW WHICH IS ALSO 

NEAR THE MOMENTUM LOW IN THE CRASH CYCLE ABOVE .

NOTE: APRIL 4TH 9TH IS THE NEXT IMPORTANT SWING DATE . IF THIS TURNS INTO A LOW THEN I'D ADOPT A MORE

BULLISH STANCE .

BOTTOM LINE : I REMAIN BULLISH OVERALL FOR THE YEAR YET THIS PRESENT CYCLE HAS THE POTENTIAL 

TO BE EXTREMELY BEARISH .

MARCH 16 2015

THIS DIAGRAM IS LARGE YET IT SHOWS THE LATE GEORGE LINDSAY'S COUNT FROM THE MIDDLE SECTION.

THE PURPOSE OF THIS DIAGRAM IS TO IDENTIFY BEAR MARKET LOWS ( BOTTOMS IN CORRECTIONS)

FOR THE MOST PART THESE MIDDLE SECTIONS ARE DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY SO IT IS A MATTER

OF INTERPRETATION YET WHEN YOU GET THEM CORRECT THEY TEND TO BE EXTREMELY ACCURATE .

THE CHART BELOW THIS IS THE NYA CHART I HAVE BEEN UPDATING OVER THE PAST AND 

IM JUST POINTING OUT THE MID SECTION COUNT SO WE KNOW WHERE WE STAND TODAY .

BOTTOM LINE HERE : THE MARCH 11 2015 LOW APPEARS TO BE THE STARTING POINT FOR

THE NEXT ADVANCE ( FEB 2 THOUGH WAS THE END OF THE PATTERN)

NYA DAILY 

HERE IS THE DAILY CHART OF THE NYA 

COMPARE THIS CHART TO THE DIAGRAM ABOVE AND SEE IF THIS MAKES SENSE TO YOU .

NOTE: I CHOSE POINT C

BOTTOM LINE: THIS IMPLIES SEVERAL MONTHS OF BULLISH BEHAVIOR !

FEB 8 2015

THE $NYA INDEX CAME INTO ITS RESISTANCE ZONE FRIDAY IN THE 10921-10943 RANGE 

AND STALLED THEN TURNED DOWN . THIS LEAVES THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INCOMPLETE 

TRIANGLE FORMATION . THE NEXT CYCLE LOW POINT WOULD THEREFORE BE FEB 14-16TH 

BEFORE AND RUN BACK UP TO NEW ALL TIME HIGHS . WE BEGIN A NEW 2 YEAR CYCLE 

IN THIS MID FEB TIME FRAME WHICH LEAVES THE SHORT TERM CALLS A BIT TRICKY .

THERE SHOULD BE A CYCLE LOW ON MARCH 20TH ALSO YET IT IS OF SMALLER DEGREE 

THEN THE MID FEB 2 YR CYCLE .

WAVE C IS NOW THE KEY SUPPORT THAT MUST HOLD .A BREAK BELOW LAST MONDAYS 

LOW IS POSSIBLE IF WE ARE NOW ENTERING WAVE E ( EVEN THOUGH MY BIAS IS 

WAVE E IS IN PLACE .

BOTTOM LINE : A HARD SHORT TERM DECLINE SHOULD BE EXPECTED OR AT THE VERY LEAST 

ALLOWED FOR EVEN DESPITE MY BULLISH BIAS .

VERY SHORT TERM FRIDAYS DECLINE COULD HAVE BEEN A MINOR WAVE IV OF WAVE 3 TO THE UPSIDE 

THIS MINOR WAVE IV THOUGH WOULD BE LABELED AN ENDING DIAGONAL WAVE IV OF 3 WHICH WOULD 

IMPLY SOME VERY BIG SHORT TERM POINT SWINGS .( present wave count 30 min chart 1 2 I II III IV i ii iii iv on 

Friday ,the minor waves overlap which imply and ending pattern hence a new high if seen would be followed

by a deep decline back towards and most likely below Fridays low and then another new high would complete

5 waves up which would then be followed by a wave 2 decline .) 

WE MAY BE BETTER SERVED TO SIT THIS NEXT WEEK OUT TO AVOID BEING WHIPSAWED AROUND 

AND JUST KEEP AN OPEN MIND TO WHAT IS HAPPENING IN THE MARKET .

EITHER WAY ( WAVE E NOW OR WAVE IV OF 3 OF WHAT WILL BE A MINOR 5 WAVES UP ) WE SHOULD 

EXPECT A DROP IN THE MARKET AND SIT OUT ANY SHORT TERM RALLIES IF YOU ARE SPECULATING 

ON SHORT TERM MOVES .

LONGER TERM INVESTORS AS FAR AS MY THOUGHTS ,IM GOING TO ACCUMULATE A FEW MORE SHARES 

IN VARIOUS STOCKS AND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A BULLISH BIAS .

ILL DO MY BEST TO POST AN UPDATE LATE MONDAY AND WILL SHOW A FEW MORE CYCLES THAT 

WILL BEGIN OVER THE NEXT MONTH .

GOOD LUCK TRADING 

FEB 5 2015

I FOCUSED ON THE VARIABLES IN THE PRIOR UPDATE SO WE KNOW WHAT THEY ARE.

KEY RESISTANCE NOW SITS IN THE 10921 - 10943 RANGE IF THIS TRIANGLE HAS NOT YET COMPLETED.

MY BIAS IS IT IS COMPLETE AND NEW HIGHS LAY DIRECTLY AHEAD IN WHAT I WILL LABEL WAVE 1 OF 

A LAGER MOVE TO THE UPSIDE .

A GENERAL GUIDE THOUGH FOR TIMING IF FEB 11-23 FOR A HIGH AND MARCH 20 FOR A WAVE 2 LOW .

WITH ONLY A FEW TRADING DAYS BEFORE THE FEB 11 TIME FRAME I STILL MUST ALLOW FOR A 

MORE COMPLEX PATTERN ( WAVE D ) YET IM NOT GOING TO ATTEMPT ANY BEARISH TRADES 

AND IM GOING TO STICK TO MY BULLISH BIAS .

BOTTOM LINE : THE PATTERN COMPLETED ON TIME AND WE HAVE BROKEN ABOVE THE JAN 22 HIGH 

WHICH IS WHAT I WAS LOOKING FOR IN ORDER TO HAVE A BULLISH CONFIRMATION .

THE PREFERRED COUNT IS A CONTINUED THRUST TO NEW ALL TIMES HIGHS IN 5 MINOR WAVES 

FOLLOWED BY A WAVE 2 DECLINE INTO MARCH 20TH ( ROUGH AT THIS POINT ) 

NOTE: THE GAP ON THE CHART IS THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THE WAVE 2 LOW YET UNTIL 

WE SEE HOW HIGH THIS INDEX GOES CONSIDER THE GAP AS A GUIDE ONLY .

KEY RESISTANCE : 10921-10943 ASSUMES THIS IS A D WAVE AND THE TRIANGLE IS NOT YET COMPLETE.

PUSHING THROUGH KEY RESISTANCE AND BREAKING ABOVE THE WAVE B HIGH TARGETS THE 

TRIANGLE THRUST PROJECTION AT 11203.95 ( WE WILL WANT TO SEE 5 WAVES UNFOLD )

UNLESS I SEE SOMETHING OUTSIDE OF WHAT I HAVE NOTED THERE WILL BE NO UPDATE FRIDAY.

NEXT UPDATE SATURDAY 

GOOD LUCK TRADING 

 

FEB 3 2015

THE REVERSAL ON MONDAY WAS PERFECT YET WE ARE NOT OUT OF THE WOODS 

JUST YET . MY BIAS IS BULLISH AS NOTED SEVERAL TIMES OVER THE PAST SEVERAL

UPDATES . 

TODAY'S UPDATE DEALS WITH THE VARIABLES SO WE CAN HAVE A BACKUP PLAN 

IN CASE SOMETHING UNEXPECTED SHOWS UP .

ILL CLEAN UP THE CHART IN THE NEXT UPDATE YET THE QUESTION NOW BECOMES 

IS THE TRIANGLE REALLY COMPLETE ? ( IM ASSUMING IT IS BUT THE MARKET HAS NOT YET PROVEN IT )

WE NOW HAVE 2 POTENTIAL SCENARIOS TO ADD TO THE MIX ,ONE BEARISH AND ONE MORE COMPLEX .

THE COMPLEX WOULD BE A RALLY THAT TAKES OUT JANUARY 22ND HIGH AT 10868.99 YET FAILS TO 

GET THROUGH THE 10921-10943 LEVEL . IF THIS TAKES PLACE THE ODDS WOULD SHIFT THAT 

WAVE D IS TRACING OUT A MORE COMPLEX A B C RALLY WHICH IS THE OPPOSITE OF HOW 

WAVE C TRACED OUT . IF THIS TAKES PLACE THEN WAVE E WOULD TECHNICALLY BE EXPECTED 

TO DROP BELOW MONDAYS LOW BEFORE THE TRIANGLE THRUST WOULD TAKE PLACE .

THE MORE BEARISH SCENARIO WOULD BE  A FAILURE TO BREAK ABOVE THE JAN 22 ND HIGH 

AND THEN A TURN TO THE DOWNSIDE WHICH BROKE MONDAYS LOW WOULD GIVE A SELL SIGNAL 

AND ARGUE FOR A TRIANGLE THRUST TO THE DOWNSIDE . 

( A FAILURE HERE MAKES THE CASE THAT THIS ENTIRE TRIANGLE IS A ( B ) WAVE AND 

WOULD BE LABELS ( A ) TRIANGLE ( B )WITH THE THRUST DOWN BEING LABELED ( C )

IN SIMPLE TERMS THE RED A DOESN'T NOT CHANGE ON THE CHART YET THE B WOULD BECOME 

A AND SO FORTH B C D E. 

BOTTOM LINE : I TOOK PROFITS TODAY BECAUSE OF A BUSY SCHEDULE AND I WAS NOT ABLE TO 

CLOSELY FOLLOW THE MARKET . MY BIAS IS FURTHER UPSIDE YET I ALWAYS LIKE TO BE AWARE 

OF THE VARIABLES AND TONIGHT THESE ARE THE ONES I SEE THAT ARE THE MOST IMPORTANT 

TO UNDERSTAND .

IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE:

 1) IMMEDIATE BULLISH CONTINUATION TO NEW ALL TIME HIGHS EXPECTED 

2) A BREAK ABOVE THE JAN 22 HIGH YET A FAILURE FOR PRICE TO GET THROUGH THE 10921-10943 RANGE 

FOLLOWED BY A TURN BACK DOWN ( IMPLIES INCOMPLETE TRIANGLE AS NOTED ON THE CHART LABELS ALT D-E )

3) IMMEDIATE BEARISH SCENARIO IMPLIES THE ENTIRE TRIANGLE WAS NOTHING MORE THEN A COMPLEX 

B AND NEW LOWS TO FOLLOW INTO MOST LIKELY MID FEB BEFORE ANY SIGNIFICANT BULLISH MOVE.

THESE ARE THE RISKS AS I SEE THEM TONIGHT , WE WILL KNOW THE OUTCOME SOON ENOUGH .

GOOD LUCK TRADING 

NEXT UPDATE THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE THE OPEN .

CHART IS DAILY $NYA ( NYSE CASH INDEX ) 

 

JAN 31 2015

THE ONLY EXPLANATION I CAN GIVE FOR FRIDAYS DECLINE 

WAS WAVE E DECLINED IN 5 WAVES .

THAT IN ITSELF IS A WARNING SIGN THAT THIS TRIANGLE FORMATION MAY FAIL .

THIS CHART BELOW IS FULL OF FIBONACCI RELATIONSHIPS AND THE NOTES ARE

ON THE CHART FOR THOSE INTERESTED IN DIGGING FURTHER .

BOTTOM LINE : THERE IS NO MORE ROOM FOR ANY FURTHER DECLINE IF THIS PATTERN 

IS GOING TO PROVE ITSELF . MONDAY MAY PRODUCE A NEW LOW YET THE MARKET NEEDS

TO CLOSE UP ON THE DAY TO GIVE ME ANY FURTHER GUIDANCE GOING FORWARD WITH 

REGARDS TO THE BULLISH CASE .

THE DOW HAD AN INSIDE DAY ON FRIDAY 

WHICH IS A LITTLE BIT OF BULLISH DIVERGENCE .

INTERESTING RELATIONSHIPS WITH THE DOW ALSO IN REGARDS TO TIME VERSUS PRICE .

THE INITIAL DROP LASTED 7 TRADING DAYS FOR 889.92 POINTS ( CLOSE TO CLOSE )

THIS LATEST DROP HAS LASTED ALMOST 3.382 TIMES THE INITIAL DROP YET HAS NOT EVEN 

EQUALED THE SAME POINT DROP ( VERY CLOSE YET IT IS ROUGHLY 1 PT LESS ).

NOTE THE RED ARROWS ALONG WITH THE BLACK ARROWS . BASICALLY 2 EQUAL PT DROPS 

IN BOTH TIME AND PRICE .

BOTTOM LINE : MONDAY IS VERY IMPORTANT FOR THE BULLISH CASE .

ILL BE AWAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY .

NEXT UPDATE WILL BE WEDNESDAY 

GOOD LOOK TRADING .

JAN 29 2015

THE NEXT MOVE SHOULD BE A TRIANGLE THRUST TO NEW ALL TIME HIGHS 

WHICH WILL BE LABELED WAVE 1 OF A LARGER WAVE PATTERN TO THE UPSIDE.

ADDITIONALLY WE SHOULD BE COMPLETING A RIGHT SHOULDER OF A HEAD 

AND SHOULDERS BOTTOM WHICH IMPLIES MUCH HIGHER PRICES IN THE COMING 

WEEKS .

BOTTOM LINE : IM EXTREMELY BULLISH AT THIS JUNCTURE 

JAN 28 2015

IM GOING TO TAKE A BULLISH STANCE ON THE MARKET TOMORROW .

 I MAY CONSIDER A TRADE IN THE OVERNIGHT FUTURES MARKET YET 

THE CHART IN THE $NYA STILL HAS A 100 PTS OF DOWNSIDE IN IT SO

A GAP DOWN OPENING MAY BE THE BEST WAY TO TRADE .

I HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS CHART BECAUSE IT HAS ( TO ME ANYWAYS ) 

HAD THE CLEANEST PATTERN , THE DOW AND SPX APPEAR TO BE BREAKING DOWN

YET THIS INDEX IS STILL AS OF TODAY'S CLOSE HOLDING TRUE TO THE TRIANGLE FORMATION .

THE DOW HAS SUPPORT IN THE  17101 -17070 . 

GOOD LUCK TRADING 

JAN 27 2015

TODAY'S DECLINE HAS NOTHING TO CHANGE MY LONGER TERM BULLISH BIAS .

THIS IS A ZOOMED IN VIEW TO THE NYSE CASH INDEX ( $NYA ) .

FOLLOW UP TO THE GOLD BUGS INDEX BELOW .

$HUI

FOLLOWING A BREAK FROM A NARROWING TRIANGLE YOU WATCH FOR A REVERSAL BACK TO THE APEX 

OF THAT TRIANGLE . ON THE $HUI , THIS PLACES RESISTANCE AT 226.02 . ONCE THIS NEXT TOP 

IS IN PLACE I WILL THEN LOOK FOR A DECLINE WHICH I WILL LABEL PT 11 .

AT THIS JUNCTURE LABELING PT 10 IS PREMATURE YET THIS IS WHAT I BELIEVE IS GOING ON .

BOTTOM LINE : THIS IS LONGER TERM BULLISH THE GOLD STOCKS AND MAKES THE CASE 

FOR NEW ALL TIME HIGHS . ( SEE NOV 1 2014 UPDATE )

NEXT UPDATE WILL BE TOMORROW .

GOOD LUCK TRADING 

JAN 22 2015

WAVE D CAN BE CONSIDERED COMPLETE AT THIS JUNCTURE

NEXT SHORT TERM TIME LINE IS MONDAY JAN 26TH AND THEN 

JAN 28TH . IDEALLY THIS WILL BE A TOP .

A DECLINE PHASE DOWN TO COMPLETE WAVE E WILL 

COMPLETE THE TRIANGLE FORMATION AS I SEE IT .

BREAKING ABOVE THE WAVE B HIGH IS TECHNICALLY A WARNING 

OF FURTHER UPSIDE AND AT THE SAME TIME IF ITS FOLLOWED BY A DECLINE 

IT WOULD ALTER THE TRIANGLE FORMATION ( IT WOULD EXTEND ITS TIME TO COMPLETION )

THE RECENT LOWS AT WAVE C ARE NOW KEY SUPPORT .

BOTTOM LINE : I REMAIN BULLISH DESPITE THE SHORT TERM BEARISH PATTERN

THAT IS SETTING UP .AS MUCH AS I AM TEMPTED TO TAKE A VERY SORT TERM BEARISH STANCE 

I DO NOT INTEND TO TRADE THE DOWNSIDE AT THIS JUNCTURE .

GOOD LUCK TRADING 

NEXT UPDATE WILL BE TUESDAY EVENING .

 

 

JAN 15 

SEE BELOW FOR YESTERDAYS POST 

HERE IS AN EXAMPLE :

ID CONSIDER THIS TYPE MOVE FOR THE YEAR 2015 ONCE POINT E IS FINISHED.

ALSO NOTE : POINT E FAILED TO MAKE A LOWER LOW YET I STILL LABEL IT 

PT E AS AN EXPANDING TRIANGLE .

LASTLY : CONSIDER THE RATIO ,ROUGHLY 9 YEARS SIDEWAYS FOLLOWED BY 5 YEARS UP INTO THE 1987 TOP .

ALSO CONSIDER THE RATIO OF ROUGHLY 9 YEARS SIDEWAYS AND 8 YEARS UP INTO THE 1990 TOP .

5/9= 55 % UP IN PERCENTAGE TERMS OF THE 9 YEARS OF SIDEWAYS MOVEMENT .

8 MONTHS ROUGH ( JUNE 2014 TO FEB 2018 * .55 = JUNE - JULY 2015 )

8 MONTHS ROUGH ( 8/9=.888888) *8=7.1 MONTHS PLUS FEB = SEPT 2015

ITS ROUGH MATH , WE CAN ADDRESS IT ONCE WE SEE THE ACTUAL POINT E LOW

FOOD FOR THOUGHT FOR OPTION TRADERS .

JAN 14 2015

READ THE JAN 12 UPDATE BELOW SINCE THIS IS A FOLLOW UP .

WAVE D IS NOT YET COMPLETE WHICH LEAVES THE MARKET 

AT PRETTY MUCH THE SAME STANCE AS IT WAS ON JAN 12 2015.

I HAVE ADDED THE ELLIOTT WAVE DIAGRAM FOR PERSPECTIVE .

THIS IS WHY I STATED PRIOR THAT THIS LOOKS VERY TEXT BOOK .

THE ONLY THING I QUESTION NOW THOUGH IS THE JAN 28 DATE THAT 

I HAD INTENDED TO BE A LOW . 

( UNDECIDED ON THE JAN 28TH DATE AT THIS JUNCTURE )

THIS IMPLIES ANOTHER STRONG RALLY FOLLOWED BY A DROP 

BEFORE THIS PATTERN WILL BE CONSIDERED COMPLETE .

THE 10 DAY TRIN ( NOT SHOWN ) IS BECOMING OVERSOLD 

THE 10 DAY ADV DECLINE LINE IS NEUTRAL .

BOTTOM LINE : EXPECT MORE CHOPPY SIDEWAYS MOVES .

GOOD LUCK TRADING 

JAN 12 2015

THIS IS A DAILY CHART OF THE NYSE CASH INDEX ( $NYA )

THIS LOOKS VERY TEXT BOOK YET HAS 2 PATTERNS 

WITHIN IT .

LARGE PATTERN IS A HEAD AND SHOULDERS BOTTOM 

THE MINOR PATTERN A TRIANGLE .

JAN 28TH IS THE KEY DATE BASED SOLELY ON THIS CHART 

IF THIS HOLDS TRUE WE ARE ON THE VERGE OF A STRONG 

BOUNCE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DECLINE BEFORE A MUCH 

LARGER UPSIDE MOVE .

KEY SUPPORT IS THE DEC LOWS FOLLOWED BY THE EARLY JAN LOWS ( WHICH ARE KEY TO THE TRIANGLE )

NOTE : WAVES A AND B CAN BE CONSIDERED MINOR WAVE 1 & 2 ( BREAKING ABOVE WAVE B IS TECHNICALLY 

A VERY BULLISH SIGN .

BOTTOM LINE : I REMAIN LONGER TERM BULLISH THROUGH THIS ENTIRE YEAR UNTIL THE MARKET PROVES 

ME WRONG .

OLD NOTES 

KEY DATES : FEB 14TH-20TH START DATE ( INLINE WITH 2 YEAR CYCLE LOW ) 

MARCH 20 2015 : INLINE WITH DECENNIAL  PATTERN ( WHICH CALLS FOR A LOW )

NO OPINION AT THIS TIME .

JAN 6 2015

MY MODEL IS LOOKING FOR A 2 YEAR CYCLE LOW  MID FEB .

THE DECENNIAL CHART BELOW IS CALLING FOR A LOW JAN 2OTH

AND ANOTHER LOW MARCH 20TH AND NOTHING BUT UP UNTIL

MARCH APRIL 2016 .

I MUST REMAIN LONG TERM BULLISH DESPITE THE BEARISH ENVIRONMENT.

I PRESENTLY DO NOT SEE MUCH DOWNSIDE ( 3-5 % IS ABOUT IT FROM HERE IN MY OPINION )

THIS IS THE DAILY DOW FORECASTED FROM PRESENT LEVELS INTO APRIL 2016.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS PLEASE DO YOUR RESEARCH 

BEFORE RISKING YOUR MONEY . 

GOOD LUCK TRADING  

DEC 26 2014

THE 36 TRADING DAY CHART JUST CLOSED TODAY AT ALL TIME HIGHS .

THE LONG TERM COUNT IS FOR HIGHER PRICES .

THE TOP OF THE UPPER TREND LINE INTO THE YEAR 2018 IS NOT CALCULABLE AT THIS TIME .

A MAJOR LOW BEGINNING OCT 2011 IS EXTENDING .

SOMETHING IM WATCHING .

WE STILL HAVE A 2 YEAR CYCLE LOW DUE IN MID FEBRUARY .

THE CHART PATTERN LOOKS LONG TERM BULLISH TO ME .

FXI

LOOKS LIKE 40.00 IS NOW KEY SUPPORT .

25 PERCENT UPSIDE POTENTIAL .

SEE AUG 20 UPDATE. CHXX WAS CLOSED HENCE MONEY GIVEN BACK .

DEC 17 2014

KEEP IN MIND I HAVE A BULLISH BIAS FOR NEXT YEAR DESPITE THE SHORTER TERM BEARISH EXPECTATIONS.

KEY RESISTANCE : 17759 ( ABOVE THIS LEVEL I WOULD ABANDON ALL SHORT TERM  BEARISH POSITIONS )

KEY SUPPORT :16495

BUY POINT: 16193 OR LOWER IF SEEN 

WE ARE COMING OUT OF A SHORT TERM CYCLE LOW POINT 

A BOUNCE IS EXPECTED .

NOV22 2014

EXPANDING TRIANGLES DO NOT SHOW UP TO OFTEN SO TAKE TODAYS 

UPDATE WITH SOMEWHAT OF A GRAIN OF SALT .

THE "E" WAVE OF A TRIANGLE USUALLY FINDS ITS SUPPORT .618 FROM 

THE WIDEST POINT OF THE TRIANGLE FORMATION .

BOTTOM LINE : A HIGH IS DUE LATE NEXT WEEK ( NOV 28 DEC 1ST )

TECHNICALLY A DECLINE PHASE WOULD RUN INTO MID TO LATE DEC AND 

A LOW IN MID FEB WOULD MARK THE 2 YR CYCLE LOW .FROM THERE THE DOW 

SHOULD BE BULLISH FOR THE YR 2015 ( POSSIBLY VERY STRONGLY BULLISH )

17200-17101.56 IS ALL IM TARGETING FOR A DECLINE AT THIS POINT .

THE LOWER SUPPORT SITS AT 16634 

LASTLY IF THIS EXPANDING TRIANGLE IS FOR REAL ? ( 14835 BECOMES THE TARGET ) 

REGARDLESS I WILL REMAIN LONGER TERM BULLISH .

SEE BELOW AS TO WHY IM CONSIDERING THIS AN EXPANDING TRIANGLE 

FOOD FOR THOUGHT 

GOLDMAN SACHS COMMODITIES INDEX

VERY VERY OVERSOLD !!!!

THIS CHART IS SIMPLY WHAT I CALL UP DOWN DAYS .

AN UP DAY OM THE MARKET I ADD 1 AND A DOWN DAY I SUBTRACT 1 .

THE MAIN THESE IS THE TIME COUNT .

JULY 18 TO SEPT 1 = 45 DAY TOP TO TOP ,ADDING 45 DAYS TO SEPT 1

WAS OCT 16 ( TOP TO TOP TO BOTTOM ) 

TAKING ALL THE VARIOUS TIME COUNTS ,THE NEXT CLUSTER 

SURROUNDS NOV 28-DEC 1ST .

BOTTOM LINE : ITS TO EARLY TO CALL THIS A BREAK OUT .

NOV 9 2014

THE NEXT TURN DATE IS TUESDAY NOV 11TH FOR A SHORT TERM CYCLE HIGH .

I HAVE NO INTENTION OF TRADING THIS HIGH .

MY FOCUS TODAY IS THE CRASH CYCLE WE JUST WENT THROUGH AND HOW 

IT ACTUALLY PLAYED OUT VERSUS THE THEORY .

THE WHOLE POINT OF SHOWING THIS OVERLAY TWICE A YEAR IS TO POINT OUT THE 

CORRELATIONS . NOTE THE MOMENTUM LOW WAS DUE OCT 21-23RD .

THE SECONDARY LOW ON OCT 22 APPEARS TO BE A WAVE 2 LOW . WHAT THIS IMPLIES 

IS WE ARE NOW INTO A MINOR 5TH WAVE OR POSSIBLY A MINOR 5TH WAVE OF WAVE 3 

FROM THE OCT LOWS . ( SIDEWAYS MOVE EXPECTED FOR NEW WEEK OR 2 )

IN NO WAY AM I BEARISH 

I AM EXPECTING NEXT YEAR TO BE STRONGLY BULLISH ( DESPITE PULLBACKS ALONG THE WAY )

ILL BE HOME IN THE NEXT WEEK AND WILL FOCUS MORE ON NEXT YEARS SHORT TERM MODEL .  

$HUI 

THIS IS A FOLLOW UP TO THE NOV 1 UPDATE 

THE DROP BELOW HAS COMPLETED THE PATTERN YET THE NEXT COUPLE SWINGS SHOULD BE 

SIDEWAYS FOR POINTS 11 AND 12 ONCE POINT 10 IS IN PLACE .

THIS IS THE BIG PICTURE IM WORKING WITH .

UNDER ELLIOTT WAVE GUIDELINES ,ONCE A TRIANGLE THRUST HAS BEEN COMPLETED YOU 

LOOK FOR A MOVE BACK TO THE APEX OF THAT TRIANGLE . 

THE APEX SITS AT 226.02

BOTTOM LINE : A STRONG BOUNCE TO 226 WOULD BE LABELED POINT 11 . A FAILURE TO GET BEYOND 

196.17 WOULD LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN TO NEW LOWS ( WHICH WOULD BE LABELED POINT 10 )

SEE SHORT TERM BELOW .

HUI HOURLY CHART 

SOMETHING TO CONSIDER .

THIS INDEX APPEARS TO BE BOTTOMING IN THE SAME TIME FRAME AS THE CRASH THEORY .

SO FAR THOUGH WE DO NOT HAVE 5 WAVES UP . TO ADD TO THIS WAVE III IS FAIRLY SHALLOW 

AT JUST A LITTLE OVER 1 TIMES WAVE 1 . WHAT THIS MEANS IS ONE OF 2 SCENARIOS LAY DEAD

AHEAD . 1) WE ARE ABOUT TO SEE A SPIKE UPWARDS WHICH WOULD GO BEYOND 167.53 AND KEEP 

RISING UNTIL WE HIT THE APEX AT 226.02. OR 2) WE TAP 167.53 AND DROP BACK TO A NEW LOW .

BOTTOM LINE : WHILE MY BIAS IS LONG TERM BULLISH AT THIS JUNCTURE I HAVE NO SOLID 

PROOF A BOTTOM HAS BEEN MADE AT THIS JUNCTURE OTHER THAN TO SAY THE PATTERN 

I HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING IS NOW CONSIDERED COMPLETE . 

NOV 1 2014

HUI 

IT MAY JUST BE THAT THE 2 YEAR CYCLE LOW IN MID FEB 2015 MARKS THE BOTTOM IN THE GOLD STOCKS.

THAT SAID THE 3 PEAKS DOMED PATTERN ON THE HUI WILL BE CONSIDERED COMPLETE ON A POKE 

BELOW 150.27 . TO ADD TO THIS USING A VERY SLOPPY WAVE COUNT ( THE DROP FROM THE HIGH TO PT 8)

WAVE 5 WILL EQUAL WAVE 1 IN PERCENTAGE TERMS AT 146.99. THE LOWER SUPPORT SURROUNDS

THE 104-97.40 RANGE WITH 84.47 BEING THE EXTREME . 

IM HAVING DOUBTS THIS INDEX GETS THAT LOW YET THERE IS STILL TIME LEFT INTO JANUARY FOR A BOTTOM .

PRICE WISE ALONE THOUGH ALL IT WILL TAKE IS A POKE BELOW 150.27 TO COMPLETE THE 3 PEAKS

PORTION OF THIS PATTERN , THE NEXT MOVE TO FOLLOW SHOULD BE PTS 11 12 13 14 WHICH SHOULD BE 

SIDEWAYS . ILL KEEP MY EYES OUT FOR POINT 10 11 AND 12 BEFORE TURNING BULLISH .

I AM NO LONGER BEARISH THE GOLD STOCKS DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER PRICES.

THE PATTERN IS NOT YET COMPLETE YET IS CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE RISK REWARD DOES NOT 

MERIT A BEARISH STANCE .

BOTTOM LINE : IT IS NOW TIME TO CHANGE OUR THOUGHTS ON THE GOLD STOCKS AND BEGIN LOOKING 

FOR THE BULLISH SIDE TO TRADE 

( YES 150.27 NEEDS TO BE BROKEN TO COMPLETE THIS BEARISH PATTERN.)

GOOD LUCK TRADING 

OCT 23 

BEFORE THE OPEN 

THE 20 DAY OSCILLATOR FELL INTO ITS COMMON OVERSOLD RANGE ON OCT 16TH AND HAS TURNED 

UP . A CASE CAN BE MADE THAT IS THERE IS A BULLISH DIVERGENCE BETWEEN THE JULY 8 OVERSOLD READING

AND THE OCT 16TH OVERSOLD READING . YET IF YOU LOOK AT THE ACTUAL DOW, IT FELL INTO AUGUST 7TH

BEFORE MAKING ITS SWING LOW .

MY BIAS IS TO WATCH THIS INDICATOR FOR FURTHER SIGNS OF BULLISH DIVERGENCE BEFORE TRADING 

WITH IT . 

BOTTOM LINE : THIS MARKET IS BECOMING OVERSOLD . 

AS WE ENTER WHAT SHOULD BE A CYCLE LOW PERIOD WE SHOULD ASK OURSELVES WHAT IF IM WRONG ?

IT LOOKS TO ME LIKE 16304 IS NOW THE SUPPORT ON A CLOSING BASIS THAT NEEDS TO HOLD .

A FURTHER CHOPPY RISE FOR A WEEK OR SO IS POSSIBLE YET IF THIS PATTERN IS GOING TO TRACE

OUT THEN WE HAVE ANOTHER DOWN LEG IN FRONT OF US .

BOTTOM LINE : INDICATORS ARE USELESS IN A BEAR MARKET ! 

KEEPING THE LONGER PICTURE IN MIND HERE.

A HUGE DROP FROM HERE INTO LATE JANUARY WOULD BE A SET UP FOR A RUN BACK UP TO

NEW ALL TIME HIGHS .

BOTTOM LINE : THIS BEARISH SCENARIO IS SHORTER TERM IN NATURE YET CAN BECOME 

VERY PAINFUL . ON A YEAR ON YEAR BASIS THE YEAR 2014 WAS DUE TO BE A FLAT YEAR .

DON'T LET THE SHORT TERM BLIND SIDE YOU TO THE FACT THAT THE DOW IS HAVING A FLAT 

YEAR .

( SEE THE FEB 1 2014 UPDATE POSTED BELOW ) 

I LEAVE THESE POSTED FOR MY OWN REFRESHER YET I THINK ITS TIME WE ALL WENT BACK 

TO LATE DEC 2013 EARLY JANUARY 2014 AND RE READ OUR NOTES FROM THAT TIME PERIOD .

QUESTION : IS THAT A HEAD AND SHOULDERS TOP ON THE DOW ??? 

OCT 14 2014

EXITING MY BEARISH POSITIONS TURNED OUT TO BE A COSTLY MISTAKE.

THE CYCLE LOW DUE OCT 21-23RD AS WELL AS NOV 7TH IS WHERE 

ILL TAKE MY NEXT BULLISH STANCE FROM .

ILL POST MORE IN THE COMING DAYS .

20 DAY OSCILLATOR ON THE DOW 

APPROACHING OVERSOLD CONDITIONS YET NOTHING EXTREME .

SHORT TERM CRASH PHASE 

THE OCT 8TH CLOSING HIGH AT 16994.20 IS NOW KEY CLOSING RESISTANCE.

ANY CLOSE ABOVE THAT LEVEL MAKES THE ARGUMENT A BOTTOM IS FORMING OR 

IN PLACE . A FAILURE TO CLOSE ABOVE THAT LEVEL AND JUST A RETEST LEAVES THE DOOR OPEN 

FOR ANOTHER EVEN STRONGER PHASE TO THE DOWNSIDE INTO LATE NOVEMBER.

THE VERY SHORT TERM OSCILLATOR ON THE DOW IS BECOMING OVERSOLD YET THE LONGER 20 DAY IS NOT ( ABOVE )

THINK OF IT THIS WAY .

IF THE MARKET BEGINS TO CHOPS SIDEWAYS AND BOUNCE YET WITH NO REAL STRENGTH TO IT .

THEN IT WOULD BE BECAUSE THE SHORT TERM OSCILLATOR IS WORKING OFF ITS OVERSOLD CONDITION 

AND WOULD BE SETTING THE MARKET UP FOR ANOTHER LEG LOWER AS CHART ABOVE IMPLIES .

A FULL ON DROP FROM HERE THOUGH IS VERY MUCH A POSSIBILITY .

ON OCT 24TH THE DROP FROM JAN TO FEB WILL EQUAL THE DROP FROM THE RECENT PEAK .

AN EQUAL POINT DROP WOULD TARGET 16103. BREAKING BELOW THAT LEVEL TARGETS THE NEXT

LOWER LEVEL AT 15551.52 ( ASSUMING THE OCT 24TH CYCLE LOW FAILS)

BOTTOM LINE : IM SITTING OUT THIS NEXT WEEK UNTIL I CAN PIN POINT A BOTTOM .

THE NASDAQ 100 IS FOLLOWING THE SAME THEME AS NOTED WITH THE DOW.

DO YOU SEE HOW THIS IS PRETTY MUCH THE EXACT SAME SCENARIO AS FROM JAN TO APRIL ?

GOOD LUCK TRADING .

ILL POST MORE IN THE COMING DAYS . 

MY UPDATES WILL BE EITHER LATE EVE OR EARLY MORNING DEPENDING ON MY 

WORK SCHEDULE 

OCT 8 2014

SHORT TERM TIMING 

THE 2 YEAR CYCLE ( IN BLUE ) POINTS HIGHER INTO OCT 13TH 

THE SHORT TERM TIMING MODEL WAS CALLING FOR A LOW TODAY .

OCT 13TH-22ND WOULD BE THE NEXT SWING HIGH .

THIS MARKET IS OVERSOLD .

BOTTOM LINE : TODAY'S SWING LOW WILL PROBABLY HOLD 

THE NEXT SWING LOW ( OCT 24TH AND NOV 6TH ) MAY END UP AS THE END 

POINT OF A SIDEWAYS MOVE ( IF THIS IS WHAT WE ARE GOING TO SEE )

I AM NO LONGER HOLDING ANY BEARISH TRADES .

THE 10 DAY $TICK PLUS ADV DEC LINE :

IN A TRUE BEAR MARKET INDICATORS ARE PRETTY MUCH USELESS .

IN A BULL MARKET THOUGH WE MUST RESPECT OVERSOLD READINGS .

THIS IS THE MOST OVERSOLD READING USING THIS INDICATOR IN OVER A YEAR .

WITH THE TIMING MODEL CALLING FOR A LOW AS WELL AS THE SIMILAR THEME 

WITH THE APRIL LOWS EARLIER THIS YEAR ( SEE SEPT 13TH UPDATE BELOW )

I MUST GIVE THE BENEFIT OF DOUBT TO THE BULL CASE .

BOTTOM LINE : IM BULLISH 

DECENNIAL CHART 

A TEST OF THE HIGHS OF THE YEAR SHOULD BE EXPECTED IF THIS MARKET JUST BOTTOMED.

THE PULLBACK ( NEXT SWING LOW ) INTO OCT 27TH DOVE TAILS WITH THE NEXT SWING LOW 

ON THE TIMING MODEL AS WELL AS THE 2 YEAR CYCLE SWING LOW .

16864 IS NOW KEY SUPPORT AND THE PIVOT SITS AT 16997.

16997 WILL BECOME KEY SUPPORT IF WE SEE A CONTINUED MOVE HIGHER WHICH 

TESTS THE HIGHS OF THE YEAR .

GOOD LUCK TRADING .

 

OCT 6TH 2014

THE 5 DAY AVERAGE OF THE 20 DAY OSCILLATOR :

THIS INDICATOR HAS NOT YET TURNED UP AND I WOULD 

PREFER IT TO GO A BIT FURTHER TO THE DOWNSIDE AND TEST/BREAK THE .45 LEVEL 

TO GIVE ME A REASON TO BEGIN TAKING A BULLISH STANCE .

A DROP IN THE COMING DAYS WOULD MAKE THE ARGUMENT THAT WE ARE SEEING A BOTTOM AND NOT A TOP 

THAT SAID THE PICTURE AT THIS POINT MATCHES THE BEARISH PATTERN ,

BOTTOM LINE : IT IS WAY TO SOON TO MAKE A BULLISH CASE FROM THIS .

SEE BELOW .

WE ARE NOW ENTERING THE STRONGEST PORTION OF THIS CYCLE .

WILL IT BE UPWARDS OR DOWNWARDS ?

THIS IS WHY IM CONTINUING TO HOLD A SLIGHT BEARISH BIAS AT THIS JUNCTURE .

NEXT UPDATE TO BE WEDNESDAY OCT 8TH , GOOD LUCK TRADING 

OCT 2 2014 

POSTING THIS BEFORE THE OPEN .

THE MARKET IS BECOMING OVERSOLD AND SHOWING BULLISH DIVERGENCES.

THE TURN DATE FOR OCT 8TH IM THINKING WILL BECOME A LOW .

THIS HAS BEEN MY BIAS SINCE LAST POST DATED SEPT 13TH ( SEE THAT POST )

MY INTENTION IS TO KEEP A SLIGHT BEARISH BIAS INTO OCT 8TH .

FROM THERE ILL BE LOOKING FOR BULLISH OPPORTUNITIES.

LASTLY MID FEB 2015 THE 2 YR CYCLE LOW IS DUE .

WE MAY END UP IN A CONTINUED CHOPPY SIDEWAYS MARKET UNTIL THEN 

YET  MY BIAS IS FOR NEXT YEAR TO BE UP .

BETWEEN NOW AND FEB IS THE TIME TO RESEARCH VARIOUS STRATEGIES

SUCH AS , SELF DRIVING CAR TECHNOLOGIES , BATTERY TECHNOLOGY, 

FUEL CELL SYSTEMS, HYDROGEN POWER, NIDAR .

QUESTION: WHICH MICROCHIP WOULD END UP IN A SELF DRIVING CAR ?

WHO WOULD BE THE HARDWARE SUPPLIER, I DON'T CARE WHO BUILDS 

THE CAR IM INTERESTED IN WHO BUILDS AND SUPPLIES THE COMPONENTS .

NEXT UPDATE WILL BE BRIEF YET WILL BE MONDAY  OCT 6TH 2014.

A CLOSE BACK ABOVE 16864 WILL GIVE A BUY SIGNAL WITH A TARGET OF

17130.

SEE YOU MONDAY 

SEPT 24 2014

WE BEGAN A NEW CYCLE TODAY 

IM GETTING MIXED SIGNALS ON THE OVERALL MARKET.

THESE ARE OVERSOLD READINGS 

NOT EXTREME MIND YOU YET OVERSOLD .

ADV DEC LINE 

OVERSOLD AND TURNING UP ?

BIG CRASH PATTERN:

IGNORE THE SCALING ON THIS CHART , IT IS ABOUT TIMING A BIG DROP NOT A PRICE PROJECTION 

17054 WOULD BE THE MUST BE BROKEN LEVEL IF THERE IS ANY MEANING TO THIS PATTERN .

OCT 4TH WOULD BE THE IDEALIZED HIGH YET OCT 4TH 8TH IS THE DATE ZONE FOR A HIGH .

MINI CRASH ZOOMED .

KEEP IN MIND THIS THEORY BASED OVERLAY HAS SOME SERIOUS FLAWS IN IT .

THE POINT OF THIS IS SIMPLE .

IF WE SEE IT FAILING TO PRODUCE EVEN A MILD CHOPPY DOWN TREND GOING FORWARD

THE OUTCOME BECOMES BULLISH .

SEE TIMING MODEL NOTES BELOW ( DATED SEPT 13 AS WELL AS AUG 24TH )

 

SEPT 13 2014

THE MAIN DATES TO LOOK AT FOR A LOW ARE OCT 6-8TH

AN IMPORTANT LOW IN THAT TIME FRAME WOULD BE SIMILAR

TO THE APRIL LOW EARLIER THIS YEAR .

 

DECENNIAL PATTERN

COMPARE SHORT TERM DATES ( AND 2 YEAR CYCLE IN BLUE ) ABOVE TO THE DECENNIAL PATTERN DATES BELOW .

MY INDICATORS DO NOT SHOW ANY LONGER TERM OVERSOLD READINGS ( VERY SHORT TERM THOUGH IS A BIT OVERSOLD)

RESEARCH YEARS ENDING IN 5 ( 1905,1915,1925,1935,1945,1955,1965,1975,1985,1995,2005,ECT....) AND ASK YOURSELF

WHAT DID THE MARKET DO IN THOSE YEARS. 

WHAT ARE THE ODDS OF 2015 BEING A BEARISH YEAR BASED SOLELY ON HISTORY ?

 

AUG 26 

10 DAY TRIN

THIS INDICATOR HAS NOW CLOSED BELOW 1.00

A CLOSE BACK ABOVE 1.00 WILL GIVE A SHORT TERM

SELL SIGNAL .

10 DAY ADVANCE DECLINE LINE 

IDEALLY WE SHOULD SEE THE 10 DAY ( RED LINE ) DECLINE WHILE THE DOW CLOSES UP .

TODAY THIS INDICATOR ROSE WITH THE DOW YET IS MAKING A LOWER HIGH AS THE DOW MAKES

A HIGHER HIGH . ( BEARISH DIVERGENCE )

THIS ALSO SHOWS THE SAME PATTERN WITH THE 5 DAY ( BLUE )

AUG 24TH 2014

BEFORE GOING INTO THE INDICATORS ILL NOTE.

THERE IS NOTHING ON THE WEEKLY OR MONTHLY INDICATORS

THAT STAND OUT AS BULLISH OR BEARISH .

SHORTER TERM TO BE POSTED TODAY YET LETS LOOK AT THE TIMING 

FOR A MOMENT

SHORT TERM MODEL .

THE GRAY ( 2 YR CYCLE ) HAS BEEN HELPFUL THIS YEAR YET IT APPEARS TO BE SHOWING

AN INVERSION YET THE BLUE SHORT TERM MODEL HAS BEEN FAIRLY ACCURATE TO DATE 

SO WHICH TO WE TRADE BY ?

SEE NEXT CHART BELOW .

DECENNIAL PATTERN CHART 

THIS CHART HAS BEEN ALSO VERY HELPFUL THIS YEAR AND IF THIS IS GOING 

TO CONTINUE THEN MONDAY SHOULD BE AN UP DAY .

NOTE THE SWING PERIOD OF AUG 25TH TO SEPT 9TH !

THE QUESTION THEN IS :

IS THE SHORT TERM MODEL STILL ON TRACK ?

IS THE 2 YEAR CYCLE INVERTING ?

SEE NEXT CHART BELOW .

NOTE A FEW THINGS HERE:

RED IS SHORT TERM MODEL 

BLUE IS 2 YEAR CYCLE 

BOTH OF THESE EXTENDED INTO YEAR END.

THE YELLOW SHOWS WHERE THE RED ( SHORT TERM MODEL CALLED FOR LOWS 

NOTE HOW BOTH MODELS WERE IN SYNC INTO AUG 1ST .

NOW ASK YOURSELF THIS , SINCE AUG 1ST WHAT HAS HAPPENED ?

THE BLUE LINE BELOW THE DOW ( IN BLACK ) DOVE TAILS WITH THE SWING LOW 

ON THE 2 YEAR CYCLE .

SO I ASK MYSELF DID THE 2 YR CYCLE TURN THE DOW UP AND THE THE SHORT 

TERM MODEL EXTENDED IT HIGHER ?

IF SO THEN SEPT 2 WOULD BE WHERE TO LOOK FOR A HIGH .

IF SEPT 2 DOES BECOME THE HIGH THEN THE WEEKLY INDICATORS WILL SHOW US .

IF THE HIGH IS DO NOW ? THE SHORT TERM INDICATORS SHOULD BE OUR TRIGGER .

LAST CHART BELOW ON TIMING .

DOW CRASH PATTERN CHART .

NOTE THE SIMILARITIES , NOTHING IS EVER A PERFECT COMPARISON .

THE DATE AUG 25TH IS THE CALCULATED DATE . ( THIS FITS THE DECENNIAL PATTERN AS WELL AS SHORT TERM TIMING MODEL)

THAT SAID THE CHART SHOWS TUESDAY AS THE HIGH .

BOTTOM LINE : TIMING ALONE SAYS LOOK FOR A TOP NOW .

SHORT TERM INDICATORS

10 DAY ADVANCE DECLINE LINE

THE KEY IS THE RED 10 DAY LINE ON THIS CHART .

NOTE THE BLUE HAS ALREADY TURNED DOWN AND ACCELERATED LOWER FRIDAY.

THE RED 10 DAY NEEDS TO DROP MONDAY YET THE DOW WOULD NEED TO RISE 

TO GIVE THE SIGNAL ( WE WANT A BEARISH DIVERGENCE TO SHOW UP )

THIS 9 ( RED ) INDICATOR IS ALREADY INTO ITS NORMAL UPPER RANGE .

HENCE IT IS SOMETHING TO GO BY .( NOT A LOT BUT SOMETHING )

NEXT BELOW 

10 DAY TRIN .

WE WANT TO SEE THE 10 DAY TRIN CLOSE BELOW 1.00 TO GIVE AN OVERBOUGHT 

READING . THEN WE WANT TO SEE A CLOSE BACK ABOVE 1.00 TO GIVE THE SELL

SIGNAL .

THIS IS A VERY SHORT TERM TOOL .

NOTE: THURSDAY THIS INDICATOR CLOSED EXACTLY AT 1.00 THEREFORE 

NOT GIVING THE OVERBOUGHT READING , THE SUBSEQUENT CLOSE ON 

FRIDAY ABOVE 1.00 IS SUSPECT .

BOTTOM LINE : EVEN THE BASIC INDICATORS ARE A WEAK SALES PITCH

ON TAKING A BEARISH STANCE .

LAST 2 CHARTS TO FOLLOW ( INDICATORS ANYWAY )

5 DAY TRIN Sum.

THIS INDICATOR RUNS FROM 4.00 ( OVERBOUGHT ) TO 7-9 ( OVERSOLD )( 12 IS AN EXTREME AND RARE)

WHAT YOU DO IS TAKE THE 5 DAILY CLOSES ON THE $TRIN AND ADD THEM TOGETHER 

WHEN THEY ADD UP TO 4.00 OR LOWER YOU LOOK FOR A SHORT TERM DROP 

IN THE DOW

 ( WHEN OTHER INDICATORS ARE ALSO GIVING OVERBOUGHT OR BEARISH SIGNALS 

YOU USE THIS AS JUST A VERY SHORT TERM TOOL TO COMBINE WITH THE OTHERS )

THIS TOOL IS NOT A STAND ALONE TOOL .

Note FRIDAYS CLOSE DESPITE BEING DOWN ( DOW ) THE 5 DAY SUM DECLINED 

WHICH MEANS IT BECAME MORE SHORT TERM OVERBOUGHT .

THE PAST 4 DAYS ( TO FIGURE MONDAY WHICH WOULD BE THE 5TH DAY )

.80+.49+1+1.18=3.47 MONDAY WOULD HAVE TO BE .53 WHICH IMPLIES A  BULLISH 

DAY IN ORDER FOR THIS INDICATOR TO GIVE A VERY OVERBOUGHT READING .

NOTE WEDNESDAYS .49 READING ( THE DOW WAS UP 59.54 PTS )

SO LETS GO WITH IT AND GUESS THE MOVE ( VERY SPECULATIVE)

GIVE THE DOW 98.34 PTS LOW TO HIGH FOR MONDAY .

ROUGHLY 17082-17100 IS AS FAR AS I CAN ALLOW FOR .

KEEP IN MIND TUESDAY IS IT FOR THE IMMEDIATE BEARISH CASE .

THE DOW MUST NOT BREAK ABOVE 17152 SO KEEP A STOP IN MIND 

IF YOUR GOING TO TAKE A BEARISH STANCE .

NEXT UPDATE WILL BE TUESDAY 

GOOD LUCK TRADING .

Aug 20 2014

TIMING MODEL UPDATED TO AUG 20 CLOSE

THOUGHTS:

Dow Wave B count ( Bearish case )

Mini Bear Markets can give up either Time Or Price :

The price Based Decline should be near 2.2 times Wave A

Wave A *2.2 =1799.12 Points .

Wave A = C Time =Monday Aug 25th 

Fib Double Timeline Friday 

.786 from high to low and measured from low to high =Monday Aug 25th ( Ideal extreme time )

Next Time Pair ( 1.382 Times High To Low Measured Low To High ) = ?

Summer high = Monday Aug 25 ( Caralon research )

Autumn High =  Oct 4 ( Caralon Research ,SHOULD BE IDEALLY A LOWER SWING HIGH !!! )

INDICATORS ?

SHORT TERM TIMING MODEL ?

2 YEAR CYCLE ? SEPT 2 HIGH...........FEB 2015 LOW ? ( WHAT KIND OF LOW ? TIME OR PRICE ? )

BASIC TIME COUNTS ?

SENTIMENT ? ( VXO , VIX ECT ) ?

SEPT 2 ( 2 YR CYCLE HIGH )= SEPT 23 LOW , OCT 6-8TH ( LOW )

OCT 13-22ND =HIGH ?? ( A ) Upwards ?-----------------( years Ending in 5's ? )

OCT 27TH ?

NOV 7 SEASONAL BUY.

NEXT BAR ON 36 DAY CHART CLOSES SEPT 8TH 2014

SEPT 19TH-25TH IS THE START OF A NEW CYCLE ( BEAR OR BULL ?)

REF, SEE JUNE 18 POST 

 

TIME VERSUS PRICE ........

NOTE THE BLUE ZONE TIME FRAME !! ( SEE ABOVE NOTED DATES )

INDICATORS NEXT: SEE YOU SUNDAY.

August 20 2014

I AM BACK HOME FOR THE NEXT COUPLE MONTHS AND WILL

BE GOING THROUGH THE DATA ON THE DOW THIS WEEKEND

TO CATCH UP ON MY CHARTS .

ON MAY 15TH I DID AN UPDATE ON THE CHINESE INDEX AND IM 

JUST DOING A QUICK UPDATE ON THE ETF'S NOTED IN THAT UPDATE

SO FAR I SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE THAT OUTLOOK POSTED THEN.

BOTTOM LINE I REMAIN BULLISH THIS INDEX YET WILL NOTE 

IT APPEARS TO BE PUTTING IN A MINOR WAVE III HIGH .

THIS MINOR HIGH IS DUE BY SEPT 8TH .

ILL UPDATE THE DOW TIMING MODEL AND INDICATOR CHARTS 

THIS WEEKEND AND POST THEM SUNDAY .

NOTE: DOW IS COMING INTO A CYCLE HIGH AT THIS JUNCTURE 

I JUST NEED TO SEE WHAT THE INDICATORS ARE TELLING ME 

BEFORE MAKING A BEARISH CASE INTO FEB 2015.

JUNE 19 2014

TODAY THE VIX PLUS VXO CLOSED BELOW 20

VIX CLOSE WAS :10.62 STILL NOT BELOW 10.00

VXO CLOSE WAS : 9.22

THE COMBINED CLOSE AT 19.84 SATISFIES THE OBJECTIVE .

BOTTOM LINE : THE HIGH DUE NEAR MONTH , AND THE FOLLOWING DECLINE

FROM JUNE 26-27TH ( JULY 1 AT THE LATEST ) INTO JULY 10-11TH SHOULD 

BRING WITH IT A VOLATILITY SPIKE .

ADVANCE DECLINE LINE 

THE DOW CLOSED UP TODAY YET THE 5 DAY 10 DAY AND 30 DAY 

MOVING AVERAGES OF THE DAILY ADVANCE DECLINE LINE TURNED 

DOWN .

ADD TOGETHER THE VIX PLUS VXO CLOSING BELOW 20 AND WE ARE 

SEEING A BEARISH SET UP .

DOW

USING THE TIMING MODEL ALONG WITH SOME BASIC TIME COUNTS IM LOOKING AT TUESDAY 

JUNE 24TH FOR MY BEGINNING POINT ON ENTRY YET IM ALSO GOING TO USE PRICE .

17014 TO 17126 IS THE RANGE REGARDLESS OF TIME AS I SEE IT .

THE 2 YR MODEL AND THE SHORT TERM MODEL CALL THE 26TH 27TH A HIGH 

TUESDAY IS THE 24TH . JULY 1 FITS THE CRASH MODEL ( ALSO I MADE THE CASE YESTERDAY

FOR THE POTENTIAL CONSOLIDATION ,SEE BELOW ) .

BOTTOM LINE : IM GOING TO TAKE A BEARISH STANCE FROM 17014 AND ABOVE .

MY STOP IS GOING TO STAY AT 17273.

FROM A TIMING STAND POINT , FROM JULY 1ST TO JULY 10TH 11TH MUST BE DOWN HARD

BACK TO THE 16300 LEVEL WITH A LOWER TARGET TO 15,900 IF THE 16300 LEVEL IS TAKEN OUT .

FAILING TO DROP HARD INTO JULY 11TH MAKES THE CASE FOR THE CONSOLIDATION PATTERN

AND WOULD MAKE THE ARGUMENT FOR MUCH HIGHER PRICES INTO AUGUST .

UNTIL WE SEE THE MARKET ACTION WE MUST BE AWARE OF THE VARIABLES .

GOOD LUCK TRADING .

JUNE 18 2014

THE MAJOR CYCLE HIGH IS THE JUNE 26TH-27TH TIME FRAME 

FROM THIS TIME INTO JULY 10TH11TH WE WILL NEED TO SEE A STRONG 

DECLINE . 

A FAILURE TO DECLINE STRONGLY WILL MAKE THE CASE THAT THE MARKET

WOULD CONSOLIDATE AND THEN EXTEND HIGHER INTO AUGUST .

NOTE: AUGUST 11TH AND 22ND ON TIMING MODEL POSTED BELOW .

MY BIAS IS TO BECOME BEARISH SURROUNDING THE 17,000 ON THE DOW

WITH THE VIX AND VXO PRODUCING A DAILY CLOSE BELOW 10.00

TODAY'S VXO CLOSE AT 9.63 AND THE VIX CLOSE AT 10.61 IS CERTAINLY 

CLOSE YET THE PARAMETER OF BOTH CLOSING BELOW 10.0 HAS NOT 

YET BEEN MET .

BOTTOM LINE : 16,300 IS THE TARGET ZONE FOR A DECLINE WITH THE 17,014-17,126 

RANGE TO BECOME BEARISH AGAINST ( IF SEEN )

THE RISK IS A MOVE ABOVE 17273, AS WELL AS A CONSOLIDATION INSTEAD OF AN OUTRIGHT

DROP ( FROM JULY 1ST TO JULY 10 -11TH ) .

GOOD LUCK TRADING .

JUNE 16 2014

THE NEXT CYCLE HIGH COMES NEAR THE END OF THE MONTH .

WE WILL NEED TO SEE A FAIRLY STRONG DROP FROM JUNE 26-27TH 

INTO JULY 10-11TH . THAT WILL BE THE KEY TIME 

17072 IS KEY RESISTANCE .

JUNE 8 2014

20 DAY OSCILLATOR ON THE DOW .

NOT YET INTO ITS OVERBOUGHT ZONE YET VERY CLOSE .

NOTE: EACH YEAR IT TENDS TO REACH ITS LOWER ZONE BELOW .38

THIS YEAR IT HAS FAILED TO DO SO WHICH IS A CONCERN .

ADVANCE DECLINE LINE .

THERE IS NO DIVERGENCES SHOWING UP YET IN THESE INDICATORS 

I WILL NOTE THOUGH THEY ARE INTO THERE RESPECTIVE UPPER ZONES 

10 DAY TRIN 

A CLOSE ABOVE 1.00 WILL GIVE A SELL SIGNAL .

PRESENTLY IT IS GIVING AN OVERBOUGHT READING 

$VIX + $VXO

I WANT TO SEE BOTH THE VIX AS WELL AS THE VXO CLOSE BELOW 10 EACH

DOING THAT WOULD SEND THIS INDICATOR BELOW 20 .

MY INTENSION IS TO BUY JULY AND OCTOBER PUT OPTIONS WHEN I SEE THIS SET UP 

THIS CHART IS A MONTHLY CHART YET MY CONDITION WOULD BE A DAILY CLOSE .

GOOD LUCK TRADING 

JUNE 6 2014

DOW IS COMING INTO RESISTANCE 

TUESDAY IS A POSSIBLE TURN DAY YET THE TIMING MODEL POINTS HIGHER

INTO LATE JUNE .

SHORT TERM MODEL THOUGH HAS A TURN DAY ON THE 12TH 

DECENNIAL MODEL POINTS TO A HIGH ON THE 16TH 

TUESDAY IS THE 10TH .

WATCH 16996-17113

HIGHER RESISTANCE WHICH IS IMPORTANT FOR NOW SITS AT 17273 ( THAT'S THE STOP )

ILL GO INTO INDICATORS ON THE WEEKEND

NEXT UPDATE : SUNDAY JUNE 8

HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND 

JUNE 5 2014

THE DECENNIAL CHART IS CALLING FOR A HIGH ON JUNE 16TH WHICH 

DOES DOVE TAIL WITH FUTURES AND OPTIONS EXPIRY .

THE TARGET AT THE MOMENT IS 17113 YET THESE PRICE TARGETS DO CHANGE

BASED ON THE DATA . ( 17072-17113 )

MAJOR RESISTANCE SITS IN THE 17650-18000 RANGE AND THAT WOULD ONLY 

BECOME A VALID TARGET IF THE MID TO LATE JUNE TIME FRAME FAILS TO PRODUCE 

A TOP OF IMPORTANCE.

NOTE: FOLLOWING THIS CYCLE HIGH IN JUNE THIS MODEL SHOWS A SIDEWAYS TREND 

INTO OCT 27TH .

NOTE : OCT 27 END OF SIDEWAYS MOVE .

 

DOW TO 2 YEAR AND SHORT TERM TIMING MODEL

NOTE: AUG 11 2014 ON THIS . ALSO NOT JULY 25TH.

JUNE 26TH 27TH IS THE MAJOR CYCLE HIGH IN BOTH THE 2 YR AND SHORT TERM TIMING MODELS

HOW THIS CORRELATES WITH OPTIONS AND FUTURES EXPIRY REMAINS TO BE SEEN .

BOTTOM LINE: JUNE 27 TO JULY 11 NEEDS TO BE DOWN FAIRLY STRONG TO KEEP 

THE MODEL ON TRACK .

NOTE: OCT 24 ON BLUE 2 YR CYCLE .

SPIRAL DATES

THIS OVERLAY SHOULD BE TAKEN WITH A GRAIN OF SALT REGARDLESS OF 

ITS SEMI ACCURACY TO DATE .

ONE THING TO NOTE HERE IS THE OCT 21-23RD LOW .

MAY 31 2014

THE SHORT TERM MODEL UPDATED ABOVE WAS CALLING FOR A HIGH 

MAY 28TH . WITH THAT IN MIND IM EXPECTING A DECLINE YET I DO NOT 

INTEND TO TRADE IT SINCE THE 2 YEAR CYCLE TURNS UP ON WEDNESDAY 

AND BOTH THE 2 YEAR CYCLE AS WELL AS THE SHORT TERM TIMING MODEL

ARE CALLING FOR A PEAK ON JUNE 27TH .

NEXT UPDATE WILL BE TUESDAY EVE.

GOOD LUCK TRADING 

MAY 25 2014

THE DOW TODAY VERSUS THE 1929-1987 MARKET.

THINGS TO NOTE , THE PUETZ WINDOW IS TECHNICALLY 

NOT ACTIVE THIS YEAR AND THE DATES WHILE WORTH NOTING

ARE NOT WORKING . THE SPIRAL DATES THOUGH ARE 

IN ALIGNMENT .

WHAT IS NOTABLE AT THIS JUNCTURE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 

AN EXTENDED RUN HIGHER.

WHAT IS ALSO NOTABLE IF YOU LOOK AT THE GRAY ( 2 YEAR CYCLE ) ON THE 

SHORT TERM MODEL AT THE TOP OF THE PAGE IS THE AUG 25TH DATE .

THE 2 YEAR CYCLE PEAKS JUNE 27TH AND THEN DECLINES INTO AUG 25TH 

THE 2 YEAR CYCLE LOW IS DUE FEB 15 2015 .

ALSO NOTE THE LOWER HIGH IS THE SHORT TERM MODEL ( IN BLUE )

THE DATE AUG 25 WILL BE IMPORTANT .

THE 2 YEAR CYCLE HAS A HIGH ( LOWER HIGH ) IN EARLY SEPTEMBER .

AND THEN FALLS INTO FEB .

BOTTOM LINE : THE 17000 AREA IS STILL MY INITIAL OBJECTIVE .

MORE RESEARCH TO FOLLOW THIS .

NEXT UPDATE : MONDAY MORNING  

MAY 20 2014

KEEP AN EYE ON THE 16260 LEVEL ON THE DOW OVER THE 

NEXT 2 TRADING DAYS 

DOW AND FIBONACCI 

TODAY'S BREAK BELOW 16400 IS A BEARISH SIGNAL .

THE 16260-16258.93 LEVEL IS THE NEXT IMPORTANT SUPPORT .

NOTE ARE ON THE CHART SO YOU CAN SEE HOW IM COMING UP WITH THIS .

GOOD LUCK TRADING 

NEXT UPDATE WILL BE WEDNESDAY .

MAY 19 2014

SELL STOP TO LONG POSITIONS 16446.79 ON A PRINT BASIS 

SHORT POSITIONS WOULD BE TAKEN ON A PRINT BELOW 16400 .

TODAY'S LOWS MUST NOT BE BROKEN IF THIS PATTERN IS GOING 

TO WORK , A BREAK BELOW TODAY'S LOWS WOULD CALL FOR A MINI CRASH .

NEXT UPDATE : TUESDAY MAY 20 

BOTTOM LINE : IM BULLISH AND WILL REMAIN SO AS LONG AS TODAY'S LOWS HOLD .

 

MAY 18 2014

THE CRASH PHASE ?

MAY 28 TH IS THE NEXT TURN DATE .

COMPARE THIS TO THE TIMING MODEL ABOVE .

CRASH UPWARDS ?

MONDAY SHOULD BE A HEAD FAKE ,( GAP DOWN OPEN FOLLOWED BY STRONG UP

THE 36 TRADE DAY CHART OF THE DOW DOES NOT CLOSE UNTIL JUNE 2ND

YET IM SEEING A FAIRLY LARGE BEARISH DIVERGENCE SETTING UP .

THE 2 YEAR CYCLE PEAKS THE END OF JUNE .

ID KEEP MY BULLISH BIAS AS LONG AS THE 16373 LEVEL HOLDS .

BREAKING BELOW 16401 OPENS THE DOOR FOR A STRONGER DECLINE 

ILL NOTE .

BOTTOM LINE : IM BULLISH YET WILL TAKE ADVANTAGE OF A FURTHER

 DECLINE IF IT COMES

LONG TERM PATTERN OVERLAY IM FOLLOWING .

MORE ON THIS FOR ANOTHER DAY 

NEXT UPDATE : MONDAY EVENING 

GOOD LUCK TRADING 

MAY 15 2014

TURNING BULLISH ON CHINA .

IM LONG 2 CHXX TO 1 FXI .

UPSIDE INTO AUGUST 2014 YET LOOKING OUT TO JULY AUG 2016 IM GOING 

TO KEEP IT AS A LONGER TERM POSITION TRADE .

59.36 IMPORTANT RESISTANCE INTO THE WEEK OF AUG 4 2014 .

THE 59.36 AREA SHOULD ACT AS A MAGNET IF I HAVE THE TIMING RIGHT .

GETTING ABOVE 59.36 TARGETS 72.72 .

THIS IS A BUY AND HOLD AND WATCH FROM A DISTANCE TRADE .

BREAKING BELOW 47.80 TARGETS 40.81- THE MID 30'S 

BOTTOM LINE : AS LONG AS THIS PAIR OF ETF'S STAY 

ABOVE 47.80 ILL REMAIN LONGER TERM BULLISH .

I THINK ITS WORTH RESEARCHING THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN

THE 2 OF THESE. AS ALWAYS DO YOUR RESEARCH BEFORE 

RISKING YOUR MONEY !

SEE YOU SUNDAY FOR THE DOW UPDATE .

DOW FOLLOW UP FROM MAY 11 

SO FAR THE DOW IS HOLDING THE 16456 LEVEL HAVING BROKEN SLIGHTLY BELOW IT .

THE NEXT SHORT TERM CYCLE LOW ( SEE TIMING MODEL ABOVE ) IS DUE NOW 

YET IF YOU NOTE THE GRAY WE ARE ALSO INTO A 2 YR CYCLE LOW WHICH HAS 

SOME MORE TIME LEFT . MAY 23RD IS ALSO A CYCLE LOW BY OTHER MEASURES

AND THE DECENNIAL CHART ALSO IS SHOWING WEDNESDAY MAY 23RD AS A LOW .

THEREFORE I MUST REMAIN BULLISH .

BOTTOM LINE : 16456 STILL MATTERS YET 16373 IS POSSIBLE

WELCOME TO OPTIONS EXPIRY .

DOW DAILY

THERE IS A TOP TO BOTTOM TO BOTTOM COUNT THAT SHOWS MONDAY AS A LOW 

16373-16340 IS THE MUST HOLD RANGE INTRA DAY 

BOTTOM LINE : BULLISH !

A BREAK BELOW 16340 IS BAD 

ILL GO INTO INDICATORS SUNDAY 

HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND 

MAY 11 2014

SUPPORT TO THE BULLISH SIDE OF THE MARKET SITS AT 

16456 , WITH OUT A BREAK BELOW THERE I WOULD LOOK FOR A SWIFT 

MOVE UPWARDS TO THE 17,000-17,072 LEVEL.

 20 DAY OSCILLATOR

NEXT WEEK IS AN OPTION EXPIRY WEEK

THIS INDICATOR IS SOMEWHAT OVERBOUGHT 

YET NOT AN EXTREME.

10 DAY ADVANCE DECLINE LINE 

THIS INDICATOR IS NEITHER OVER BOUGHT NOR OVERSOLD .

ANY BREAK OUT TO THE UPSIDE WOULD MOST LIKELY RUN THOUGH THE WEEK 

GIVEN THE OPTIONS EXPIRY .

CLUES WILL BE THE MONDAY MARKET ACTION 

MINI CRASH PHASE IF ITS GOING TO COME 

WE WOULD NEED IT TO BEGIN ON MONDAY .

A BREAK OUT TO THE UPSIDE WOULD MOST LIKELY DRIVE PRICES HIGH INTO THE END POINT 

OF THIS CYCLE WHICH SURROUNDS JUNE 9TH 

BOTTOM LINE : A POWERFUL MOVE IS COMING ,MY BIAS IS TO THE UPSIDE 

BREAKING BELOW 16430 WOULD TURN ME BEARISH .

MAY 5 2014

NEXT UPDATE MAY 11

THIS WEB HAS BEEN MOVED TO A NEW SERVER

WHICH HAS CAUSED DELAYS IN POSTING

MAY 20-23RD IS THE NEXT SWING DATE .

SHORT TERM MODEL IS CALLING FOR A LOW

MAY 14TH .

SEE YOU SUNDAY 

 

 

APRIL 24 2014

SHORT TERM TIMING MODEL AND 2 YEAR CYCLE

ARE CALLING FOR A SHORT TERM HIGH NOW .

RED IS THE DAILY DOW CLOSES .

JUNE 27TH IS THE NEXT MAJOR PEAK .

NEXT UPDATE : SUNDAY APRIL 26TH 

APRIL 1 2014

IM NO LONGER BEARISH THE MARKET FROM A LONGER

TERM PERSPECTIVE .

NOTE TIMING MODEL AT THE TOP OF THE PAGE .

WE ARE BEGINNING A NEW CYCLE APRIL 1 .

THE SHORT TERM TIMING MODEL IMPLIES A DOWNWARD MOVE

INTO APRIL 14TH YET I WOULD QUESTION IT AT THIS JUNCTURE.

THE BASIC TIME COUNTS OF 255 TRADE DAYS UP FOLLOWED BY

49 TO 62 TRADE DAYS DOWN HAS NOW ENDED AS OF LAST WEEK.

THIS HAS ALSO BEEN A 65 TRADE DAY CYCLE ( LOW TO LOW )

OVER THE PAST SEVERAL YEARS .

16324 KEY SUPPORT AND 16081 NOW MAJOR SUPPORT .

IF THE 65 WEEK CYCLE IS STILL IN EFFECT THE MARKET WOULD LAUNCH HIGHER .

IF THE 2 YR CYCLE IS STILL IN EFFECT THE MARKET WOULD DROP INTO APRIL 14TH .

BOTTOM LINE : IM MIXED AT THE MOMENT ON THE SHORT TERM .

INDICATORS ARE GIVING A MORE OVERSOLD THAN OVERBOUGHT READING

THIS LEAVES ME WITH A GENERAL BULLISH OUTLOOK .

MARCH 9 2014

THE DOW IS NOW UP FOR 60 MONTHS .

THE GRAY IS THE TYPICAL MOVEMENTS WITH IN THE DECENNIAL PATTERN CYCLE.

MARCH 14TH 17TH IS THE NEXT IMPORTANT TURN ( WHICH I WAS LOOKING FOR A LOW )

FROM A SIMPLE GENERAL OVERVIEW IT LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS WILL BE 

SIDEWAYS . THE BEARISH TIMING MODEL IS BELOW THIS CHART .

THE CHART AT THE TOP OF THE PAGE SHOWS THE 2 YR CYCLE WHICH IS DUE TO TURN UP FROM 

MARCH 14TH , YET THE MARKET HAS BEEN RISING SO YOU LOOK TO THE POSSIBLE REVERSAL 

BACK DOWN NEAR THAT DATE , IF THOUGH THE MARKET CONTINUES TO EXTEND THE YOU ADOPT 

THE EXTENSION HIGH INTO JUNE 27TH ( THE 2 YR CYCLE HIGH ) 

LASTLY APRIL 1ST IS THE START OF THE FLAWED CRASH CYCLE .

I CALL IT FLAWED BECAUSE IT IS TECHNICALLY NOT TRUE TO FORM THIS 

YEAR . 

BOTTOM LINE : MARCH 14-17TH THE NEXT TURN , APRIL 1 NEXT TURN FOLLOWING 

AND APRIL 29-30TH AND THE MOST IMPORTANT JUNE 26-27TH .

APRIL 1ST TO APRIL 30TH SHOULD BE A DIRECTIONAL TREND ( UP OR DOWN ) (TYPICALLY DOWN THOUGH )

IF THE TIMING MODEL IS GOING TO PROVE ITSELF THEN MARCH 14-17TH TO APRIL 30 SHOULD BE A DOWN MARKET 

OR AT A MINIMUM A BIFURCATED MARKET WITH MANY STOCKS LEADING TO THE DOWNSIDE EVEN IF THE 

MARKET AVERAGES HOLD UP ( BE CAREFUL WITH GOLD STOCKS DURING THIS PERIOD )

FEB 23 2014

DOW FUTURES 

THIS IS THE DAILY MARCH DOW FUTURES CONTRACT CHART 

USING THE OCT LOW AND THE MID DEC LOW THERE IS SOME INTERESTING 

PRICE SWING LEVELS TO NOTE ,THE DROP FROM THE LATE DEC HIGH TO 

THE EARLY FEB LOW WAS 1.27 TIMES THE RALLY .

THE EARLY FEB LOW WAS A .618 RETRACEMENT OF THE ENTIRE RALLY 

FROM OCT TO LATE DEC .( WITH IN A FEW POINTS )

THE RALLY FROM FEB TO DATE IS EQUAL IN PRICE AS THE MID DEC TO LATE DEC.

IF THIS CONTINUES , THE DOW SHOULD DROP TO ITS .786 RETRACEMENT 

OF THE ENTIRE RUN FROM OCT TO LATE DEC AND IN DOING SO IT SHOULD 

RETRACE 1.27 TIMES THE RALLY FROM EARLY FEB TO DATE .

MY INTERPRETATION IS THEREFORE WE ARE SEEING A BULL GARTLEY PATTERN 

TRACING OUT .

HERE IS THE BASIC DIAGRAM TO HELP MAKE SENSE OF THIS CHART .

 

QQQ

THIS CHART SHOWS A FEW .618 AND 1.27 LEVELS TO CONSIDER .

THERE ARE MUCH MORE .618 AND 1.27 RELATIONSHIPS IN THIS CHART 

THAT IM NOT SHOWING TO KEEP IT CLEAN .

THE SWING FROM 89 TO THE FEB LOW HAS NOW BEEN RETRACED BY 

A 1.27 RETRACEMENT . TAKING THE 89 LEVEL TO THE FEB LOW AND 

EXTENDING THAT POINT MOVE USING A 1.618 EXTENSION TARGETS

81.94 ( THE 1.618 ID TYPICALLY A C WAVE )

USING THE FEB LOW TO THE RECENT HIGH AND USING A 1.27 RETRACEMENT 

TARGETS 81.92. USING THE OCT LOW TO THE RECENT HIGH 

A .618 RETRACEMENT TARGETS 81.17 . 

THIS IS PROBABLY ALL WE WILL SEE IF WE GET THE STRONGER DECLINE I HAVE 

BEEN LOOKING FOR ( LOOK TO BE BULLISH WHEN PRICES BELOW 83.00 )

FOR NOW IM USING THE 86.30 LEVEL AS MY INITIAL DOWNSIDE OBJECTIVE .

YET THE LOWER LEVELS NOTED ARE IDEAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT BOTTOM .

GOOD LUCK TRADING .

FEB 20 2014

THE FINAL RALLY UP FROM MID DECEMBER INTO YEAR END IS OF THE SAME 

PRICE MOVEMENT FROM THE LOW IN FEB TO THE 16225 LEVEL . TIME WISE 

THOUGH THE DURATION WOULD END ON TUESDAY. THE 16225 LEVEL IS 

IMPORTANT NOW . THE NEXT HIGHER RANGE IS 16321-16446 WITH THE 16446

LEVEL BECOMING KEY IN ABOUT 30 TRADING DAYS ( END OF MARCH )

BOTTOM LINE : BEYOND TUESDAY IF THIS MARKET CONTINUES TO EXTEND

THEN THE MID TO LATE MARCH LOW I HAVE BEEN JUMPING UP AND DOWN ABOUT 

WILL MOST LIKELY BECOME A HIGH

 ( I STILL THINK A LOWER HIGH YET THE MARKET WILL DECIDE THAT )

A HIGH IN MID TO LATE MARCH GIVES A MORE PRONOUNCED BEARISH SIGNATURE

THE THE DECLINE I HAVE BEEN LOOKING FOR . I'LL DEAL WITH THAT WHEN THE TIME COMES.

 THEREFORE DESPITE BEING WRONG OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS I CONTINUE 

TO LOOK FOR A MID TO LATE MARCH LOW RATHER THEN A HIGH .

A BREAK BELOW 16111 WITH FOLLOW THROUGH SELLING PRESSURE IS NEEDED .

GOOD LUCK TRADING .

FEB 18 2014

A FAILURE FROM A BULLISH TRIANGLE TYPICALLY LEADS

TO A STRONGER DOWNSIDE MOVEMENT .

16164.60 IS THE KEY LEVEL THAT MUST HOLD FOR THE BEARISH SCENERIO.

FROM WAVE ( C ) ON THE CHART BELOW IT APPEARS THERE IS ANOTHER MINOR 

TRIANGLE FORMATION FORMING ( TO EARLY TO TELL )

IF THE MARKET GAPS UP TOMORROW AND BREAKS ABOVE 16156.63 YET FAILS TO 

BREAK ABOVE 16164.60 AND THEN TURNS DOWN ,LOWER STOPS TO WHAT EVER 

THAT HIGH IS .ALSO IF THAT HAPPENS ,RAISE KEY SUPPORT FROM 16123.14 TO 16127.38.

A BREAK BELOW 16123.14 EARLY WEDNESDAY TARGETS 16090 

A BREAK ABOVE 16164.60 TARGETS 16215 .

KEEP IN MIND THIS IS AN OPTIONS EXPIRY WEEK .

KEY RESISTANCE TO A STRONG GAP UP OPEN SITS AT 16157.34 

( SELL IT SHORT WITH 16165 STOP MY THOUGHTS )

NASDAQ 100 CHART UPDATED BELOW 

GOOD LUCK TRADING .

NASDAQ 100

READ THROUGH THE FEB 14TH POST TO UNDERSTAND THIS CHART .

FEB 15 2014

JUST A COMPARISON TO CONSIDER .

LOOK AT THE PATTERN OF THE 1929 STOCK MARKET CRASH .

NO IM NOT CALLING FOR THE END OF THE WORLD .

WHAT I DID IS TAKE THIS CHART AND THEN PUT IT INTO TODAY'S 

CALENDAR DATES NOTE FROM 387 TO 187 THERE IS 10 RANGES .

SEE THE CHART BELOW .

THE RED BARS ARE THE DOW IN 1929 CONVERTED TO TODAY'S CALENDAR TO REMOVE GAPS IN TERMS OF TIME .

NEXT I BROKE IT DOWN INTO 10 RANGES ( WE COULD DO THAT WITH 100 PTS 1000 PTS OR WHAT EVER )

THIS IS FOR PATTERN PURPOSES ONLY AND NOT FOR A PRICE PROJECTION .

MONDAY THE MARKET IS CLOSED YET IF THE MARKET IS GOING TO FOLLOW 

THE PATTERN ( NOT PRICE PROJECTION ) THEN WE WANT TO SEE A DECLINE 

INTO MID MARCH .

BOTTOM LINE : I STATED ON FRIDAY I WILL NOT CONTINUE TO WATCH THE MARKET GO 

UP AND HOLD ONTO BEARISH POSITIONS AND WE REALLY NEED TO SEE THE MARKET DECLINE 

WE ARE TRULY AND THE MOMENT OF TRUTH FOR THE BEARISH CASE .

NOTHING EVER LINES UP THIS CLOSELY FOR EVER .

THE DATES SHOWN ON BOTH CHARTS ARE THERE TO SEE . YOU CAN DO SOME RESEARCH FOR YOURSELF 

YET I MUST SAY THIS IS A PRETTY CLOSE COMPARISON .

GOOD LUCK TRADING AND ILL SEE YOU TUESDAY .

red 1929 Dow black 2014 Dow updated as of Feb 14 close

FEB 14 2014

SEE PRIOR UPDATE FOR NASDAQ 100 

THE DOW HAS REACHED ITS LIMIT AS FAR AS IM CONCERNED

ANY CONTINUATION FURTHER TO THE UPSIDE WOULD CAUSE

ME TO LIKELY ABANDON MY BEARISH POSITIONS YET IM

STICKING TO MY BEARISH BIAS .

SOMETIMES YOU JUST HAVE TO ADMIT YOUR WRONG 

DOW

THE DROP WAS ABC X ABC 

THE RALLY SO FAR ALSO A B C X A B C .

WAVE C = A AT 16176.03 AND TODAY THAT LEVEL WAS TOUCHED.

MONDAY WOULD HAVE TO REVERSE TO THE DOWNSIDE .

AS MUCH AS IM BEARISH WE SHOULD ALL REALIZE THAT THE MARKET IS 

ALWAYS RIGHT AND IF THIS MARKET CONTINUES HIGHER I WOULD NOT 

ADD TO MY BEARISH STANCE .

BOTTOM LINE : THE HOMEWORK HAS BEEN DONE THE SET UP IS PRESENT 

AND NOW ITS TIME FOR THE MARKET TO PROVE THE ANALYSIS CORRECT

OR NOT . 

NASDAQ 100

EARLIER TODAY I MADE THE CASE FOR SELLING AT 3671.91 IF TOUCHED.

THAT LEVEL DID NOT GET TOUCHED YET I DID TAKE A BEARISH POSITION .

NOW THE MARKET MUST PROVE ITSELF COME NEXT WEEK .

NEXT UPDATE WILL BE MONDAY FOLLOWING THE CLOSE .

ENJOY THE WEEKEND :-)

FEB 14 2014

I WAS LOOKING AT THE YEARLY PIVOTS FOR THE NDX THIS MORNING

AND THOUGHT ID TOUCH ON IT .

TAKE NOTE OF THE YEARLY R1 RESISTANCE AT 3671.91

THEN LOOK BELOW AT THE WEEKLY CHART .

NDX WEEKLY 

TAKE A MINUTE TO LOOK AT THIS CHART .

THIS CHART IS FULL OF FIBONACCI PRICE CLUSTERS .

THE HIGH IN 2000 TIMES .764 = 3679.69

THE LOW IN 2002 TIME 4.618 =3672.46

THE LOW IN 2008 TIMES 3.618 =3698.23

THE RALLY FROM THE 2002 LOW TO THE 2007 HIGH WAS 1443.98 POINTS

ADDING 1443.98 TO THE 2007 HIGH AT 2239.23 = 3683.21

AND LETS NOT FORGET THE YEARLY R1 RESISTANCE AT 3671.91

AND FOR ONE LAST LOOK LETS LOOK AT THE DAILY CHART FROM DEC 2013 TO DATE .

NDX DAILY 

NOTE : VERY SIMILAR PRICE LEVELS , THE 3692.90 LEVEL SHOULD NOT BE TESTED IF THE 

LARGER LEVEL MATTER, HENCE THAT IS THE MAX LEVEL ID ALLOW , ANYTHING ABOVE THERE

WOULD MEAN SOMETHING IS WRONG .

BOTTOM LINE : A STRONGER DECLINE IN THE NASDAQ 100 WOULD JUST BE A CATCH UP 

MOVE TO THE DOW AND SPX . 

LOOK TO TAKE A BEARISH STANCE AT 3671.91 IF TOUCHED STOP BEING 3693

TARGET NEW LOWS FOR THE YEAR ( 3418.88 MINIMUM )

FEB 13 2014

KEEPING IT SIMPLE .

CYCLES WORK UNTIL THEY STOP WORKING .

THE HIGH DUE BY EARLY JANUARY CAME ON TIME WHICH SAYS 

LOOK FOR A LOW 49 TO 62 DAYS FOLLOWING THE DEC 31 CLOSING HIGH .

FROM APRIL 2009 THERE HAS BEEN AN IMPORTANT LOW EVERY 65 WEEKS.

THE 2 YR CYCLE CALLS FOR A LOW MARCH 14TH . 49 TO 62 TRADE DAYS 

FROM DEC 31 IS MARCH 10TH TO THE 27TH . THE 65 WEEK CYCLE CALLS 

FOR A LOW THE WEEK OF MARCH 31 .

SINCE THIS CYCLE HAS SO FAR BEEN EXTREMELY RELIABLE FOR ALMOST 5 YEARS

I FIND IT HARD TO FIGHT IT ( UNTIL IT FAILS )

BOTTOM LINE : I REMAIN BEARISH INTO MID MARCH .

16086-16122 IS THE NEXT HIGHER RANGE 

TODAY'S SHORT TERM ACTION LOOKS LIKE A LATE DAY TRIANGLE FORMATION

SEE BELOW 

TRIANGLES TYPICALLY SHOW UP NEAR THE END OF THE TREND .

A GAP UP OPEN SHOULD BE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY .

THE FEB 17 TURN DATE MAY BECOME A HIGH , IT IS TO SOON 

TO STATE THIS GIVEN THE SHORT TERM READINGS FROM THE 

ADVANCE DECLINE LINE THOUGH WHICH IS BEGINNING TO GIVE

ME AN INCREASINGLY BEARISH BIAS ( SHORT TERM )

ADVANCE DECLINE LINE 

THE 10 DAY MOVING AVERAGE OF THE DAILY ADVANCERS MINUS DECLINERS

DECLINED TODAY WITH THE DOW HAVING AN UP DAY ( BEARISH )

THE 5 DAY MOVING AVERAGE IS PEGGED INTO ITS UPPER RANGE ( BEARISH )

THE 30 DAY MOVING AVERAGE IS MAKING A LOWER HIGH AS THE DOW 

IS MAKING A HIGHER HIGH ( BEARISH ) 

BOTTOM LINE : THESE ALL ARE SAYING LOOK OUT FOR A REVERSAL 

TO THE DOWNSIDE .

FEB 11 2014

SHORT TERM THOUGHTS 

TOMORROW IS THE KEY DAY . ( WED FEB 12 ) 

THURSDAY SHOULD BE DOWN .

WHETHER THIS IS ALL OF THE BOUNCE OR JUST A WAVE A

REMAINS TO BE SEEN .

BOTTOM LINE : TAKING A BEARISH STANCE IS WARRANTED 

FEB 9 2014

THE NEXT TURN ON THE SHORT TERM TIMING MODEL IS FEB 17 

THAT DATE NEEDS TO BE A LOW OF SORTS .

20 DAY OSCILLATOR ON THE DOW DID MEET A MINIMUM

OVERSOLD READING ON FEB 4 , YET IT WAS NOT AN EXTREME.

5 DAY AVERAGE OF THE 20 DAY OSCILLATOR 

THIS INDICATOR ALSO REACHED A MINIMUM OVERSOLD READING .

THIS TELLS ME THAT ANY DECLINE GOING FORWARD WILL BE SHORT LIVED .

BOTTOM LINE : A BULLISH BIAS IS WARRANTED 

THE VERY SHORT TERM OSCILLATOR REACHED AN OVERSOLD READING ON JAN 29TH 

AND TURNED UP AS THE MARKET CONTINUED LOWER , THIS INDICATOR TURNS FASTER AND SOONER THEN THE OTHER

2. THIS LEAVES ROOM FOR FURTHER UPSIDE ON MONDAY YET I WOULD BE CONCERNED ABOUT AN EXTENDED RISE

PAST WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK AND IDEALLY WE SHOULD SEE A DROP FROM NEAR THE OPEN MONDAY 

TO KEEP THE SHORT TERM TIMING MODEL ON TRACK ( THE BULLISH SCENARIO )

WHY I PREFER A FURTHER DIP IS EXPLAINED BELOW 

THINK THIS THROUGH ,

COMPARE THE RED ( ADV DEC LINE ADDED TO THE TICK IN RED ( 10 DAY AVE ) )

TO THE DOW IN BLUE .

I HAVE YET TO SEE THE BULLISH DIVERGENCE SET ITSELF UP AT THIS JUNCTURE.

THE MARKET DID GET OVERSOLD SO IT LEAVES ME WITH A BULLISH BIAS IN LARGER 

DEGREE VIEW YET UNTIL I SEE THE SETUP IM HESITANT TO CALL THE RECENT LOWS 

THE BOTTOM  .

FEB 17TH IS THE NEXT TURN DATE AND I WOULD PREFER THAT DATE TO BE A LOW 

WHETHER IS COMES OUT TO BE TRUE THOUGH IS UP FOR THE MARKET TO DECIDE .

NEXT UPDATE WILL BE WEDNESDAY .

GOOD LUCK TRADING .

PS: FRIDAYS UPDATE STANDS AS POSTED .

FEB 7 MID DAY ,

THIS IS A WEEKLY CLOSE ONLY CHART ON THE DOW .

THE PATTERN SHOWS A CLEAN 5 WAVES UP .

NOTE THE TREND LINE CONVERGENCE BASED ON 

PRINT WEEKLY BARS ( ALSO SHOWN BELOW )

15817.25-15930.64 IS THE IDEAL RANGE FOR A HIGH 

YET THE STOP TO THIS BEARISH SCENARIO IS 

16000.65 .

SUPPORT SITS IN THE RANGE OF 15130.21-14958.29 

14810.31 MUST NOT BE BROKEN ON A CLOSING BASIS 

OR ILL CONCLUDE THE MARKET HAS MADE A MORE IMPORTANT TOP

THEN I HAVE BEEN THINKING .

BOTTOM LINE : THE CLOSING LOW ON AUGUST 26 2013 IS MORE IMPORTANT

THE THE OCT SWING LOW .

SAME CHART AS ABOVE ONLY A BAR CHART INSTEAD OF CLOSE ONLY CHART .

THE SAME CHART , THE SAME DATA YET 2 COMPLETELY DIFFERENT WAYS TO SEE IT .

THE KEY TO THE BULLISH CASE IS THEREFORE THE AUGUST 26 2013 WEEKLY CLOSING LOW

AT 14810.31 .

KEY RESISTANCE IS A WEEKLY CLOSE ABOVE 16001 .

RIGHT NOW WE ARE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE RANGE SO THE BEST TRADE WOULD 

BE TO ENTER A BEARISH POSITION IN THE 15930-15964 RANGE WITH A STOP 

AT 16001 . ( THAT WOULD BE THE IDEAL RISK REWARD ) 

IF WE CONTINUE TO REPEAT THE ACTIONS OF THE PAST FEW YEARS 

THERE SHOULD STILL BE A BEARISH BIAS INTO MARCH YET THIS BEARISH 

BIAS IS SHORT TERM WITHIN A LARGER BULLISH PICTURE.

THE BEARISH LABELS ON THIS CHART NOTED YET THE REAL THING TO CONSIDER 

IS THE TIMING OF THE PAST FEW YEARS .

252 TRADE DAYS UP FOLLOWED BY 49 TO 62 TRADE DAYS DOWN . THIS HAS BEEN THE 

NORM . THE HEAD AND SHOULDERS TOP FORMATION FITS THE PT 23 HIGH AND DOES

MAKE THIS CHARTS LABELS CORRECT , SO THE BEARISH VIEW HAS VALIDITY YET 

WE SHOULD ALWAYS ASK OURSELVES WHAT IF IM WRONG . THE BULLISH CASE ABOVE 

GIVES US SOME LEEWAY TO CONSIDER BOTH SIDES OF THE MARKET AND THE KEY LEVELS

WHICH TIP THE ODDS FROM BULLISH TO BEARISH , 14810.31 ON A WEEKLY CLOSING BASIS

PUTS THE BEARISH CASE FRONT AND CENTER . UNTIL THAT IS SEEN IM STICKING TO 

THE MORE BULLISH OUTCOME AND USING THE WEEKLY CLOSE ONLY CHART AS MY GUIDE.

SUNDAYS UPDATE WILL GO INTO INDICATORS AND TIMING YET THE OVERALL PICTURE IS 

PRETTY MUCH AS POSTED RIGHT HERE .

LOOK TO TAKE A BEARISH STANCE IN THE 15930-15964 RANGE , PLACE YOUR STOP AT 

16001 AND LOOK FOR A NEW LOW TO FOLLOW , YET DO NOT GET OVERLY BEARISH UNLESS

THE AUGUST 26 WEEKLY CLOSING LOW IS TAKEN OUT (14810.31 ) WHICH IF WAS TO HAPPEN

TARGETS 12883.89 . ( THE RECENT LOW PT 24 AND THIS BOUNCE THEREFORE PT 25 ) 

SEE YOU SUNDAY 

 

FEB 7 2012

I WAS EXPECTING A DIP THIS MORNING YET IT HASN'T HAPPENED.

THERE IS A SHORT TERM TIMELINE THAT IS ON THE CLOSE TODAY

OR OPEN MONDAY . 

BEST I CAN LABEL THIS IS SOME KIND OF AN A WAVE .

UNTIL THE PICTURE CLEARS UP IM MIXED FOR TODAY'S

MARKET ACTION 

SEE YOU SUNDAY 

 

FEB 6 2014

THE 10 DAY TRIN CLOSED BACK BELOW 1.40 TODAY 

IN DOING SO IT HAS GIVEN A BUY SIGNAL .

ILL POST A SHORT INTRA DAY POST 2 HOURS 

AFTER THE OPEN FRIDAY 

SEE DOW BELOW 

DOW 

15945.90 IS KEY RESISTANCE 

THE PATTERN IS A TEXT BOOK HEAD AND SHOULDERS TOP FORMATION .

A BREAK BELOW THE RECENT LOWS AT 15340.70 WOULD CALL FOR AN

ACCELERATION MOVE TO THE DOWNSIDE .

WAVE V OF 3 WAS PRETTY WEAK YET WITH THE BUY SIGNAL FROM THE 10 DAY TRIN 

I HAVE TO ALLOW FOR A TEST OF THE 16000 LEVEL ( 15945.70 ) BEFORE CONSIDERING 

ANY BEARISH TRADES .

BOTTOM LINE : THE MARKET ACTION WILL MOST LIKELY BE UPWARDS FOR THE NEXT 

10 TRADING DAYS .

KEY SUPPORT STILL SITS IN THE 15147.1-15036 RANGE WITH 15119 THE KEY LEVEL TO 

TAKE A BULLISH STANCE FROM .

THE DROP SO FAR IS ALL 3 WAVE MOVES ( BEST LABELED A B C , NOT IMPULSIVE )

THE MARKET LOOKS MORE BULLISH THAN BEARISH .

FEB 4 2014

DOW DAILY WAVE COUNT .

WAVES 1 AN 2 ARE EASY TO SEE , WAVE 3 IS FAIRLY SIMPLE TO SEE

WAVE IV WAS VERY SHORT LIVED AND WAVE V OF 3 IS EXTENDED AND 

ALSO IT'S OWN SUBDIVISION .

15509.90 SHORT TERM RESISTANCE ( THEN 15700.90 )

15147.1-15036 IS THE SUPPORT RANGE .

NOTE: 15119 IS KEY ( PRIOR POST, DATED FEB 1 2014 )

ONCE WAVE 3 COMPLETES ILL BE LOOKING FOR A LARGER BOUNCE 

WHETHER IT BECOMES A 4TH WAVE OR AN ABC UPWARDS MOVEMENT 

IS TO SOON TO CALL .

MAJOR RESISTANCE NOW SITS AT THE WAVE IV HIGH AT 15945.90.

NEXT UPDATE WILL BE THURSDAY ( ILL BE SHOWING THE INDICATORS )

FEB 1 2014

NOTE THE 2 YEAR CYCLE ENDS ITS BEARISH DOWN TREND AND FLATTENS

FROM FEB 10 TO MARCH 14 . 

ILL GET TO THE SHORT TERM ON TUESDAY .

THESE ARE LARGE WAVE COUNTS TO CONSIDER AND HENCE 

HAVE PLENTY OF ROOM AND ADJUSTMENTS TO THINK THROUGH 

AS WE GET TO EACH POINT .

THE BIAS IS SIMPLE WHAT WOULD A LARGER 5 WAVE MOVEMENT 

LOOK LIKE FROM THE 2009 LOWS AND WHERE ARE WE WITH IN THEM NOW ?

15513 IS THE CLOSEST SUPPORT AT THE MOMENT YET THE MAJOR LEVEL

FOR THE WAVE COUNT HAS 2 LEVELS .

A COMPLEX WAVE IV WITH IN WAVE ( 3 ) OF ( 3 ) HAS THE 15119-15041 LEVEL AS SUPPORT .

THE IDEAL IV TH WAVE SUPPORT SITS IN THE RANGE OF 14311-14226 ( IMPORTANT LEVEL )

NOTE: THE WAVE 2'S AND II'S HAVE BEEN SIMPLE WAVES

THE WAVES IV'S APPEAR TO BE COMPLEX WAVES ( ITS TO SOON TO TELL IF THIS HOLDS TRUE )

THE KEY DATE IS FEB 10TH 

BOTTOM LINE : ILL BE LOOKING FOR A BULLISH TRADE SURROUNDING THE 15119 LEVEL 

ON FEB 10TH ,YET IF THAT LEVEL HOLDS IT IMPLIES A MORE COMPLEX SIDEWAYS MOVEMENT 

LASTING SEVERAL MONTHS .

SEE BELOW FOR THE MORE BEARISH SCENARIO BASED ON THE 36 TRADE DAY CHART .

36 TRADE DAY CHART .

THE POINT IS THE PATTERN NOT PRICE PROJECTIONS 

DOW 10,000 IS THE MAJOR LONG TERM SUPPORT AND I HAVE SERIOUS DOUBTS

WE WILL SEE THAT LEVEL FOR A LONG TIME .

SEE BELOW FOR THE ZOOMED IN PORTION OF THIS CHART .

3 PEAKS LONG TERM ZOOMED .

NOTE : LOOK AT THE WAVE COUNT AT THE TOP OF THE PAGE .

WE DO NOT HAVE 5 WAVES UP AS OF YET .

AS NOTED ABOVE ILL GET TO THE SHORT TERM ON TUESDAY 

JAN 25 2014

ANY BOUNCE NEXT WEEK WILL MOST LIKELY BE 

PART OF A LARGER SIDEWAYS TO DOWN MARKET

INTO MID MARCH AT THE EARLIEST.

VERY SHORT TERM OSCILLATOR:

OVERSOLD .

20 DAY OSCILLATOR

IN IT'S LOWER RANGE YET NOT OVERSOLD .

5 DAY OF THE 20 DAY OSCILLATOR

STILL SOMEWHAT OVERBOUGHT .

ADVANCE DECLINE LINE 

5 DAY ( BLUE ) OVERSOLD 

10 DAY ( RED ) NEUTRAL

30 DAY ( BLACK ) NEUTRAL 

JAN 24 2014

I WAS LOOKING FOR A LOW TO LOW TO HIGH COUNT INTO MONDAY .

SO FAR THOUGH ALL WE HAVE BEEN GETTING IS LOW TO LOW TO LOW'S

THIS IS WHY THE CONCERN ABOUT THE BEARISH SCENARIO .

NEXT WEEKS ACTION IS GOING TO BE IMPORTANT .

JAN 23 2014

POSSIBLE PROBLEM BEING BEARISH .

THE SET UP WAS GREAT THE MARKET TURNED DOWN AND YET IM SEEING A PROBLEM 

WITH MY BEARISH CALL ?

I HAVE NOTED THAT I WAS WATCHING FOR A HIGH FROM JAN 21-27TH AND FEB MUST BE DOWN 

HARD . SO THE ENTRY ON TUESDAY IS WORKING OUT GREAT ,YET THE TIMING MODEL IS SHOWING 

THE MARKET TO BE SETTING UP FOR A BULLISH SCENARIO AND THIS CONCERNS ME .

IM NOT GOING TO ADD ANYMORE BEARISH POSITIONS AND AS OF MID DAY THE DOW IS SITTING 

NEAR ITS LOWS AT 16141 ,NEAR TERM SUPPORT SITS AT 16081 . IF THIS IS A BULLISH SET UP THEN

I WOULD EXPECT 16081 TO HOLD AS SUPPORT .

BOTTOM LINE :I EXITED SOME BEARISH POSITIONS AND IM GOING TO LOOK FOR A POSSIBLE SHORT 

TERM BULLISH TRADE NEXT WEEK . THE OVER BOUGHT READINGS STILL STAND WHICH IMPLIES 

A BEARISH MARKET ,YET TIMING IS MY CONCERN AT THIS JUNCTURE AND THE FACT THE MARKET TURNED

DOWN IS BEARISH .THE MARKET ACTION THOUGH WHEN LOOKING AT THE TIMING MODEL

 IMPLIES SOMETHING IS WRONG WITH THE BEARISH CASE AT THIS JUNCTURE .

NOTE THE GRAY ( 2 YEAR CYCLE ) ,AN EXTENDED DECLINE INTO MID FEB STILL FITS INTO THIS 

AND WOULD NOT ALTER THE SHORT TERM MODEL IN BLUE . INDICATORS TAKE TIME TO GO 

FROM OVERBOUGHT TO OVERSOLD .

I AM NOW SLIGHTLY BEARISH AND WILL WAIT TO SEE FRIDAYS CLOSE AND THEN MAKE A DECISION

ON WHETHER OR NOT A SHORT BULLISH BIAS IS WARRANTED .

I WOULD NOT ADD ANY BEARISH TRADES AT THIS MOMENT .( DOW 16141 )

JAN 20 2014

ADVANCE DECLINE LINE .

ON FRIDAY THE DOW CLOSED UP YET THE 5 DAY , 10 DAY, AND 30 DAY

MOVING AVERAGES OF THE DAILY ADVANCERS MINUS DECLINERS TURNED 

DOWN .

20 DAY OSCILLATOR

OVERBOUGHT . 

JAN 19 2014

I GOT SIDETRACKED THIS MORNING LOOKING AT THE DOW FROM A PERCENTAGE MOVE BASIS .

WHAT THIS CHART SHOWS IS THE CUMULATIVE PERCENTAGE MOVES FROM THE 1932 LOW 

TO THE 1973 HIGH . AND THEN ZEROED OUT AGAIN FROM THE 1974 LOW TO PRESENT .

I FIND THIS A BIT EERIE .

ILL UPDATE THE INDICATORS ON MONDAYS UPDATE .

BOTTOM LINE : BOTH THE 1932 TO 1973 AND THE 1974 TO DATE PERCENT MOVES ARE ALMOST IDENTICAL .

NOTE: THE PATTERNS ARE ALSO VERY SIMILAR .

JAN 18 2014

SEE DOW DAILY POSTED JAN 15TH FOR THE SHORTER TERM WAVE COUNT .

TODAY IM POSTING THE DOW MONTHLY WAVE COUNT AND WILL POST THE 

INDICATORS ON SUNDAY .

AS WE ENTER NEXT WEEKS TURN DAYS WE WANT TO KEEP THE LARGER 

PICTURE IN MIND . THE MOVEMENT FROM MID 2012 TO DATE LOOKS LIKE 

A TEXT BOOK 5 WAVE MOVEMENT . 

IF THIS HOLDS TRUE THEN THE PATTERN THAT UNFOLDS GOING FORWARD 

SHOULD DEVELOP INTO A HEAD AND SHOULDERS TOP FORMATION .

THIS ALSO CALLS FOR A FAIRLY SHARP DECLINE INTO THE 15513-14848 PRICE RANGE.

NOTE: WAVE 1 HAS A TOTAL OF 4 BARS . THIS PRESENT BAR ( IN WAVE 5 ) IS NOW THE 

4TH BAR. 

BOTTOM LINE : THIS MONTH JAN 2014 CREATES A TIME EQUALITY WHERE WAVE 5 

AND WAVE 1 LAST THE SAME AMOUNT OF TIME .

FEB 2014 THEREFORE MUST BE DOWN OR THE WAVE COUNT AND TIME COMPONENTS 

ARE NOT CORRECT .

THE TIME PERIOD OF TUESDAY JAN 21 TO MONDAY JAN 27TH IS MY TOPPING WINDOW .

THAT SAID IM GOING TO BEGIN TAKING A BEARISH STANCE ON MONDAY AND 

WILL USE THE WEEK TO ACCUMULATE ADDITIONAL BEARISH POSITIONS .

ALSO NOTE : FEB 2014 MUST BE A DOWN MONTH AND I WOULD EXPECT IT TO BE 

DOWN STRONGLY ,HOWEVER ( SEE BELOW ) THE DECENNIAL PATTERN IS SHOWING 

SOME SIGNS OF RELATIVE STRENGTH INTO MONTH END AND THEN A STRONGER 

DECLINE . THIS LEAVES 2 WEEKS OF CHOPPY SIDEWAYS MOVEMENTS THAT WE 

MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH . 

DECENNIAL PATTERN CHART 

TUESDAY JAN 21 IS WHEN THIS MODEL BEGINS TURNING DOWN .

NOTE : THIS FITS WITH IN THE OVERALL MONTHLY WAVE COUNT .

FEB 2014 MUST BE DOWN OR SOMETHING IS VERY WRONG WITH 

MY BEARISH THINKING .

DOW SHORT TERM DAILY CHART BELOW .

DOW DAILY 

WAVE A HAS LASTED 2 TRADING DAYS , WAVE B APPEARS TO HAVE BOTTOMED , WAVE C WILL EQUAL WAVE A

ON MONDAY ( IN TERMS OF TIME EQUALITY ) YET IN THE BROADER PICTURE I HAVE TO ALLOW FOR THE 

JAN 24 - 27TH DATE TO PASS UNTIL LABELING THE HIGH .

SUNDAYS POSTS WILL BE IN REGARDS TO INDICATORS .

JAN 15 2014

POSTED JUST BEFORE MARKET CLOSE .

NOTE THE VARIABLES IN PATTERN YET NO VARIABLE IN TIME .

BOTTOM LINE : JAN 24 TH 27TH IS SHOWING UP FROM SEVERAL DIFFERENT CALCULATIONS .

THIS LATEST : LOOK AT BOTTOM OF CHART : 10 TRADE DAYS UP 10 TRADE DAYS DOWN 

SINCE NOVEMBER . 

THE MARKET IS ACTUALLY ACTING SOMEWHAT CYCLICAL , IF THIS CONTINUES A HIGH ON JAN 24 27TH 

WOULD BE THE BEST SPOT TO TAKE AN AGGRESSIVE BEARISH STANCE AS LONG AS IT IS MAKING A HIGH !

AS NOTED PREVIOUSLY I WOULD PREFER THE DOW TO FAIL TO MAKE A NEW HIGH BECAUSE THAT WOULD 

HAVE A MORE BEARISH OUTCOME . EITHER WAY ILL GIVE THIS MARKET 8 TRADING DAYS BEFORE 

TAKING ANY BEARISH POSITIONS .

GOOD LUCK TRADING .

JAN 14 2014 PART 2

THE EMINI SPX FUTURES ,24 HOUR CONTRACT TRADING ( FOR THE MOST PART )

NOTICE THE VOLATILITY EXPANSION ON THIS HOURLY CHART .

THE QUESTION I ASK IS , IS IT GOING TO EXPAND FURTHER ?

WILL THAT EXPANSION BE UPWARDS OR DOWNWARDS .

NOTE THE BLUE LINES . THE ONE ON THE LEFT REPRESENTS THE MOVEMENT IN

PRICE AND TIME FROM THE "HIGH" TO THE "LOW".

IF ( A ) AND ( B ) ARE EQUAL IN TIME THEN WHERE I WOULD LOOK SHORT TERM

TO ENTER THE DOWNSIDE . THE QUESTION ARISES THOUGH WHAT IS THE DEEPEST DROP

OF A TRIANGLE ? WAVE C !

NOTE : THE BLUE ( A ) AT THE BOTTOM OF THE CHART .

UNDER THIS SCENARIO WAVE a IS COMPLETE .

WAVE B CAN EITHER BE STEEP OR COMPLEX , IM GOING FOR COMPLEX

BOTTOM LINE: VOLATILITY IS EXPANDING ,THIS WARNS OF A LARGER MOVE 

COMING NEXT ,TIME SAYS JAN 24TH-27TH SHOULD BE A "SWING HIGH" DATE .

IF THAT DATE HOLDS TRUE THEN A STRONGER DECLINE MUST START AT 

THAT POINT IN TIME . WE WANT TO SEE A 5TH WAVE FAILURE IN THE MARKET ( DOW I PREFER )

WATCH 1842.50 ON THE EMINI CONTRACT , A POKE THROUGH IT WOULD GIVE THE BLUE LABELING

MORE PROBABILITY IF THE MARKET THEN TURNS DOWN PRETTY MUCH IMMEDIATELY WE WILL

WANT TO SEE THE PRIOR LOWS TAKEN OUT FOLLOWED BY A MOVE TO 1785.13

THIS IS THE SHORT TERM BEARISH SCENARIO ,

NOT VALID PATTERN IF 1846.50 IS BROKEN ( VERY BULLISH )

JAN 14 2014

KEEPING IT SIMPLE TONIGHT.

COMPARE TONIGHT'S CHART WITH THE TIMING MODEL CHART SHOWN BELOW IT.

THE DOW HAS COME DOWN TO WHAT CAN BE LABELED WAVE 4 . WAVE 5 COULD

RUN UP TO 16800 TO AS HIGH AS 17200 YET IT WOULD ONLY IMPLY THIS WOULD 

BE A LAST GASP SO TO SPEAK WHERE THE BEARS CAVE AND SEND STOCKS TO 

NEW ALL TIME HIGHS . I STILL FEEL JAN 24 TH 27TH SHOULD BE A SWING HIGH 

DATE .SO WATCH THE MARKET MORE CLOSELY AND IF IT IS FAILING TO MAKE A NEW

ALL TIME HIGH BY THEN AND STARTS TURNING DOWN ? THEN THAT IS WHERE I WOULD 

LOOK FOR A STEEPER DECLINE . IF THE MARKET HOLDS UP THOUGH AND CHOPS SIDEWAYS

WE WILL HAVE TO FOLLOW THE SLANT . 

THE RED ARROWS ON THE CHART REPRESENT THE PRIOR CHOPPY SWINGS OF APRIL TO OCT 2013.

NOTICE THE WAVE 4 LABEL THEN NOTE WHERE THE MARKET COULD GO IF IT JUST REPEATED

THE SAME THING IT JUST DID ONLY 6 MONTHS AGO ? THEN LOOK AT THE TIMING MODEL 

SHOWN BELOW .

BOTTOM LINE : THIS RECENT LOW NOW MATTERS AS DOES THE PRIOR HIGH'S

16412 IS STILL A KEY LEVEL .

NOTE CHART EDITED : ALSO POSSIBLE SIDEWAYS MOVE THAT FITS MODEL IS A TRIANGLE .

GOOD LUCK TRADING 

JAN 12 2014

I ALWAYS LOOK AT BOTH SIDES OF THE MARKET . IT DOESN'T MATTER TO ME WHICH WAY IT GOES.

THE KEY IS TO GET THE TREND CORRECT THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME .

WHAT I HAVE BEEN LOOKING AT TODAY IS THE 2 YEAR CYCLE IN GRAY . I AM COMPARING IT TO THE SHORT

TERM TIMING MODEL IN BLUE AND LOOKING AT IT FROM A BULLISH PERSPECTIVE . SINCE MY INTENT 

IS TO TAKE A BEARISH POSITION ON JAN 24TH ( LOOKING FOR A SWING HIGH THEN AS NOTED PREVIOUSLY )

SO THE QUESTION IS WHAT IF IM WRONG AND THIS IS JUST A SHORT TERM DROP ?

THE SHORT TERM MODEL IS SIDEWAYS TO UP UNDER THE BULLISH SCENARIO AND THE 2 YR CYCLE 

IS BEARISH YET FLAT INTO MARCH 14 . THE SHORT TERM MODEL IS BEARISH FOR NEXT WEEK.

16412 IS THE SHORT TERM SUPPORT AND THEN THE NEXT LOWER SUPPORT BECOMES 16081 

WHICH LOOKS TO BE KEY SUPPORT FOR THE BULLISH CASE .

ALSO NOTE : THE 2 YEAR CYCLE IS POINTING HIGHER INTO TUESDAY ( JAN 14 )

THE PICTURE LOOKS A BIT MIXED AT THIS JUNCTURE AND FOR NOW IM STICKING TO 

THE BEARISH SCENARIO .

BOTTOM LINE :MY BIAS IS BEARISH YET IM NOT RULING OUT A SIDEWAYS TREND OVER THE NEXT FEW MONTHS

IN WHICH CASE TRADING BOTH THE UPSIDE AS WELL AS THE DOWNSIDE MAY BE THE BEST WAY 

TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE SWINGS . IM KEEPING MY MIND OPEN TO WHAT THE DATA SHOWS AND 

WILL MAKE FUTURE DECISIONS AS TO HOW THE PATTERN DEVELOPS .

NEXT UPDATE WILL BE TUESDAY JAN 14 2014 .

GOOD LUCK TRADING 

Jan 2 1014

HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYONE !

CHART MAY NOT MAKE SENSE YET IT IS BASED ON 

THE LATE GEORGE LINDSAY'S COUNT FROM A MIDDLE SECTION.

THIS IS USED TO TIME BEAR MARKET LOWS AND TO TARGET THE 

NEXT BULL MARKET TOP .

WITHOUT GOING INTO DETAIL , THE RECENT HIGH IF IT ACTUALLY WAS THE TOP 

AND I HAVE THIS LABELED CORRECTLY THEN THE LOW WOULD COME IN AUGUST 

OR SEPTEMBER . THE JAN 24-27TH DATE NOTED ON DEC 28TH BELOW CAN BE EITHER

A LOWER HIGH ( ACTUALLY PREFERRED ) OR A 5TH WAVE HIGH .

KEY SUPPORT IS 16198-16175 . AND THE IDEALIZED 4TH WAVE WOULD FALL INTO THE 

16334-16198 RANGE YET IS MORE LIKELY TO LAND IN THE UPPER OF THAT RANGE .

BOTTOM LINE : I MUST CONSIDER THIS RECENT TOP A TOP OF IMPORTANCE .

THE JAN 24TH-27TH DATE SHOULD BE IDEALLY A SWING HIGH YET A LOWER HIGH 

THAN DEC 31 2013 .

IN OTHER WORDS THE ELLIOT WAVE GUYS WILL CALL FOR A 5TH WAVE YET IT WILL 

TURN OUT TO BE A 5TH WAVE FAILURE OR A TRUNCATED WAVE ( WHICH HAS MORE 

BEARISH IMPLICATIONS )

IM HOPING TO BE BACK HOME AROUND JAN 10TH AND WILL BE ABLE TO UPDATE MORE 

OFTEN AND WITH MUCH MORE DETAIL .

GOOD LUCK TRADING 

DEC 28 2013

ADVANCE DECLINE LINE ON THE NYSE.

THE BLUE LINE IS THE 5 DAY AVERAGE OF ADVANCERS MINUS DECLINERS

WHICH PEAKED ON DEC 24TH , THE 10 DAY ( RED ) IS NOW INTO ITS UPPER RANGE 

I'D LIKE TO SEE THE BLUE 5 DAY LINE CONTINUE LOWER AND THE RED DAY TURN DOWN

THE ONLY REASON TO HOLD BACK TAKING A BEARISH POSITION AT THIS JUNCTURE

IS THE TIMING MODEL WHICH HAS ITS NEXT TURN DATE ON JAN 3RD .

TO ADD TO THIS BASED ON THE RALLY LEGS OF THE PAST SEVERAL YEARS

JAN 4TH IS THE KEY DATE . THE DECENNIAL PATTERN IS CALLING FOR A HIGH

JAN 22 2014.

BOTTOM LINE : IM BECOMING MORE AND MORE BEARISH AT THIS JUNCTURE 

YET GIVING THE MARKET A LITTLE MORE TIME BEFORE TAKING A BEARISH 

POSITION . 

MAJOR MARKET .

THIS IS THE MAJOR INDEX'S ADDED TOGETHER , THE MEASURED OBJECTIVE PRICE

WISE HAS BEEN HIT YET TIME WISE ,THE BEST CLUSTER FOR A TOP ( TRADABLE TOP

TO GET BEARISH AGAINST ) TENDS TO AGREE WITH THE DECENNIAL CYCLE.

HENCE THE BOTTOM LINE IS : BEGIN TO TAKE A BEARISH STANCE OR LIGHTEN UP

ON BULLISH POSITION AROUND THE JAN 3RD 4TH DATE YET ADD TO THOSE BEARISH 

POSITIONS JAN 24TH 25TH WITH THE EXPECTATION OF AN IMMEDIATE DECLINE 

FOLLOWING THAT DATE .

DEC 25 2013.

MERRY CHRISTMAS EVERYONE !

THE 2 YEAR CYCLE IS SHOWING A SIDEWAYS TREND BETWEEN 

NOW AT LATE JUNE . SHORT TERM IT IS TURNING DOWN .

SEE NOV 13 BELOW FOR A REFERENCE TO THIS CHART .

EACH LEG UP HAS BEEN 252 TRADING DAYS . THIS PIN POINTS 

JAN 4TH AS A KEY DATE. THE CLOSE ABOVE 16310 GIVES A TECHNICAL

UPSIDE TO 16749-17210. A TURN BACK DOWN BELOW 15703 IS NEEDED 

BEFORE ANY TOP CAN BE CONFIRMED IN PLACE .

SHORT TERM DAILY CHART .

GIVE THIS MARKET ANOTHER WEEK TO DEFINE ITSELF .

NEXT UPDATE WILL BE SATURDAY DEC 28 2013.

GOOD LUCK TRADING 

DEC 20 2013

THE DEC 20TH TURN DATE CAME ON FRIDAY WITH THE MARKET UP.

THE DAILY INDICATORS ARE NOT NEAR ANY EXTREME OVER BOUGHT 

READINGS YET THE 36 DAY CHART WHICH OFFICIALLY CLOSES OUT 

DEC 30 2013 IS INDICATING  MARKET CLOSE YEAR END NEAR PRESENT

LEVELS WOULD BE INTO THE UPPER RANGE GOING BACK SOME 60 PLUS YEARS .

THIS CHART IS FROM 1950 AND INCLUDES FRIDAYS CLOSE AT 16221 AND CHANGE.

SOMETHING TO NOTE THAT DESPITE THE DOW BEING HIGHER IN PRICE THAN ITS

2007 TOP THIS INDICATOR STILL SITS BELOW ITS CORRESPONDING 2007 HIGH .

IM STILL CHECKING / WORKING WITH NEXT YEARS MODELS . NEXT UPDATE

WILL BE DEC 26 . KEEP IN MIND THE 2 YR CYCLE TURN DUE DEC 24TH .

WISHING YOU ALL A GREAT HOLIDAY .

DEC 15 2013

TIMER 2014 ROUGH .

KEEP AN EYE ON THE DEC 20-24TH TIME FRAME .

THE RED LINE REPRESENTS THE 2 YR CYCLE AND IT APPEARS

TO BE INVERTING .( SOMETHING IM ONLY BECOMING AWARE OF )

IT IS TO SOON TO CONSIDER THIS YET THE MARKETS REACTION

FOLLOWING DEC 24 WILL TELL THE TALE .

ILL UPDATE THIS PAGE ON DEC 21 .

SORRY FOR DELAYS YET WORKING ON GETTING MY MODELS UPDATED.

GOOD LUCK TRADING

SEE CHART BELOW FOR DOW COMPARISONS.

NOTE THE YELLOW LINES COMPARING THE MODEL TO THE DAILY DOW CLOSES .

8 SWINGS SO FAR WITH 7 GOOD CALLS . DO THE MATH FOR THE ACCURACY .

Dec 12 2013

15,700 ON THE DOW IS KEY SUPPORT OVER THE NEXT WEEK 

THIS IS BASED ON CLOSING NUMBERS .

IF THIS MODEL HOLDS TRUE WE SHOULD BE LOOKING FOR A 

SHORT TERM LOW OVER THE NEXT FEW TRADE DAYS 

FOLLOWED BY A FEW DAYS OF SIDEWAYS ACTION THEN 

ANOTHER RUN UP TO NEW ALL TIME HIGHS .

16,300 INTO MID JANUARY WOULD THEN BE THE NEXT 

SPOT TO TURN BEARISH FROM .

NOTE TIMING MODEL DATES ABOVE . 

DEC 20 IS THE NEXT TURN DATE .

DEC 2 2013

THE BLACK DOTTED LINE IS THE DOW DAILY CLOSES TO DATE .

THE RED AND BLUE BARS ARE THE 1987 AND 1929 MARKET CRASHES 

INVERTED . WHAT WE HAVE BEEN GOING THROUGH IS A MINI CRASH CYCLE

WHICH HAS DRIVEN THE MARKET UPWARDS . TODAY'S DECLINE KEEPS 

THE PATTERN ON TRACK . A FLAT MARKET FOR A DAY OR 2 THEN MORE UPSIDE 

SHOULD STILL BE ALLOWED FOR ( BLUE BARS ) YET MANY TIMES I HAVE ALSO SEEN 

A FAILURE ( RED BARS ) . THE MOMENTUM PEAK SHOULD HAVE BEEN FRIDAY .

AS YOU KNOW FRIDAY WAS THE INTRA DAY HIGH IN THE DOW AT 16174.51.

I HAVE A VERY LIGHT VERY POSITION AT THIS TIME .

THE SEASONAL BIAS IS STILL UPWARDS INTO MID JANUARY .

NOTE THE NEXT 2 TIMING MODEL TURNS DATES :

DEC 6TH AND DEC 20TH FOLLOWED BY JAN 3RD.

THIS PRESENT CRASH CYCLE ENDS DEC 16TH .

I WILL BE WORKING ON NEXT YEARS CYCLE WORK OVER THE NEXT FEW WEEKS.

HOPEFULLY ILL HAVE IT ALL TOGETHER BY THEN , IF NOT I SHOULD HAVE IT 

COMPLETED IN EARLY JANUARY .

BOTTOM LINE : I SEE NO REASON TO CHASE THIS MARKET FURTHER TO THE 

UPSIDE AT THIS JUNCTURE . MY BIAS IS FOR LOWER PRICES INTO AUGUST 2014.

AT THIS MOMENT IT IS LOOKING LIKE 13600 SHOULD BE TESTED AND YES THERE IS 

ALSO PLENTY OF MORE DOWNSIDE IF THAT LEVEL FAILS . FOR NOW THOUGH 

THAT'S ALL IM TARGETING .

GOOD LUCK TRADING 

NOV 25 2013

QQQ MONTHLY CHART

TIME AND PRICE IS MATCHING UP NICELY .

BOTTOM LINE : THIS LOOKS LIKE A TOPPING PROCESS

IM WAITING TILL NOV 30-DEC 1 BEFORE TAKING ANY BEARISH POSITIONS

AND ILL ALSO WAIT TILL EARLY JANUARY TO GET AGGRESSIVELY BEARISH.

$HUI MONTHLY CHART

A MOVE BELOW 150.27 IS STILL NEEDED BEFORE THIS PATTERN

CAN BE CONSIDERED COMPLETE .

BOTTOM LINE: IM WAITING UNTIL JUNE 2014 AND OR A BREAK BELOW 150.27

BEFORE EVEN CONSIDERING A BULLISH TRADE ON THE GOLD AND SILVER STOCKS.

NOV 24 2013

SEE CHART AT BOTTOM OF PAGE .

THE MOMENTUM PEAK SHOULD COME 

NOV 30 DEC 1ST . THIS IS WHEN I WILL 

BEGIN TO CONSIDER BEARISH POSITIONS

YET EARLY JANUARY WILL MOST LIKELY 

BE THE BEST TIME FOR LONGER TERM 

POSITIONS TO THE DOWNSIDE .

ILL UPDATE THIS PAGE MONDAY NOV 25

GOOD LUCK TRADING 

NOV 18 2013

PLEASE TAKE THIS WITH A GRAIN OF SALT .

TOPS IN MARKETS COME WHEN YOU LEAST EXPECT IT .

SEASONALLY THE MARKET IS HIGHER FROM NOV 7TH TO 

JAN 16TH EACH YEAR . THE GENERAL BIAS IS FOR HIGHER 

STOCK PRICES.

ALL OF THIS SAID , THE 3 PEAKS DOMED HOUSE PATTERN HAS 

MET ALL OF ITS OBJECTIVES IN TERMS OF PRICE AND PATTERN

IN REGARDS TO THE SPX .

FOR THESE REASONS I HAVE MIXED FEELINGS ABOUT THE MARKET

INDEXES .

BOTTOM LINE: 

TO SUM THIS UP , THE PATTERN IS DONE .

THE NEXT MOVE WOULD BE A DECLINE BACK TO THE OCT 2013 LOWS.

IT IS WAY TO EARLY TO CONSIDER THIS COMPLETE YET IT IS WHERE I STAND.

FROM NOW INTO EARLY JANUARY THE MARKET WOULD EITHER DECLINE BACK

TO THE OCT LOWS OR GO SIDEWAYS . UNTIL WE ACTUALLY SEE A DROP BACK 

TO THE OCT 2013 LOWS IM HESITANT TO BE AGGRESSIVELY BEARISH .

KEEP YOUR WITS AND DON'T OVER LEVERAGE YOURSELVES IF YOU GOING TO 

TAKE A BEARISH STANCE .

GOOD LUCK TRADING 

NOV 13 2013

HERE IS THE 3 PEAKS DOMED HOUSE COUNT FROM THE LOW 

IN 2009. THE CHART IS TO LARGE TO POST AS ONE SO IM SPLITTING IT UP .

NOTE THE RED ARROWS AS WELL AS THE GRAY LOW TO LOW NOTES .

NOTE THE 3 PEAKS DOMED HOUSE DIAGRAM AND THE 5 WAVE LABELS 

BEGINNING AT PT 19 AND ENDING AT PT 23 .

ONCE YOU HAVE ALL THAT IN YOUR HEAD GO TO THE NEXT CHART BELOW .

NOTICE THAT EARLY JANUARY IS WHERE THE TYPICAL RALLY WOULD END 

( RED ARROWS ) . SINCE PTS 19-23 IS TYPICALLY A 5 WAVE MOVEMENT, THIS 

MAKES THE SIDEWAYS MOVE THIS YEAR A 4TH WAVE WHICH CAN ALSO BE 

LABELED POINTS 21 AND 22 . 

THIS IS THE LARGER PATTERN IM WORKING WITH.

FROM MID DECEMBER ( IF THE MARKET IS AT A HIGH ) I WILL BEGIN LOOKING 

TO TAKE SOME MONEY OFF THE TABLE WITH BULLISH POSITIONS .

ILL USE THE EARLY JANUARY TIME FRAME AS MY PLACE TO BEGIN TAKING 

BEARISH POSITIONS . OVERALL I SHOULD NOTE I HAVE A GENERALLY BULLISH 

BIAS INTO THE YEAR 2018 . YET I HAVE A GENERALLY BEARISH BIAS FOR

THE YEAR 2014 .

FURTHER RESEARCH FOR YOU :

WHEN HAS THE MARKET BEEN DOWN IN A YEAR ENDING IN 5 ?

YOU MIGHT BE SURPRISED BY WHAT YOU FIND ( DO SOME RESEARCH IT WILL BE 

GOOD FOR YOU )

NOV 11 2013

ZOOMED IN TIMING MODEL

INDICATORS AND WAVE COUNTS TO BE POSTED TUESDAY 

SORRY BUT A FEW GLITCHES TODAY AND THIS HAS BEEN A LONG DAY .

SEE THE BULLISH AND BEARISH SIDE OF THE CRASH MODEL BELOW .

SEE YOU TUESDAY .

THE FLAWED CRASH CYCLE 

THIS PATTERN SHOULD BE CONSIDERED AS WE ENTER NEXT WEEKS

CYCLE DATE OF NOV 19TH 20TH

THE BULLISH SIDE OF THE CRASH CYCLE

THIS IS WHAT WE SHOULD BE EXPECTING YET EARLIER THIS YEAR 

IT WORKED AS THE ABOVE .

NOTE THE ZOOMED IN TIMING MODEL . ITS NEXT LOW IS DUE FRIDAY DEC 6TH 

THE CRASH CYCLE TURN DATE IS NOV 30 DEC 1 ST .

KEEP YOUR EYES OPEN FOR A REVERSAL .

NOV 10 2013

ILL BE CLEANING OUT OLD UPDATES ON MONDAY

NEXT UPDATE WILL BE POSTED AFTER THE CLOSE ON MONDAY 

I'LL HAVE PLENTY OF DATA TO POST .

SEE YOU THEN 

 

 

 

FOR QUESTION OR COMMENTS    notifyme@tradersaffiliates.com   

IF YOU WANT NOTIFICATION OF UPDATES WHEN THEY ARE PUBLISHED FEEL FREE TO WRITE ME AT THE EMAIL 

ADDRESS ABOVE . 

     

                                                                                                                                                                

THERE IS A RISK IN TRADING -PLEASE KEEP IN MIND THAT PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS. WHILE I DO MY BEST TO KEEP AHEAD OF THE MARKET AND ITS MOVES . THERE WILL BE TIMES WHEN I AM COMPLETELY WRONG . PLEASE USE YOUR OWN DISCRESSION WHEN TRADING AND USE PROPER RISK MANAGEMENT TO PROTECT YOURSELF FROM  LOSSES

 

                                                                       

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